Boston Marathon: An analysis

Excellent summation by Tony Reavis of the race on Monday.  It explains a lot and makes sense of the race tactics.

http://tonireavis.com/2014/04/23/2014-boston-analysis/

I find it hard to understand how Shalane and her coach underestimated the African women so badly. I get that if she had stayed with the lead pack and not set a blistering pace, than she would have never have been able to stay with them later after they had conserved their energies and had plenty left for late in the race. On the other hand, it became painfully clear when they dropped her that her team had come to the unfortunate conclusion that 2:22 would be enough to win. The bottom line for Flanagan is that she was damned if she went out fast, which she did, and damned if she held back. Right now, she's not in the same class as the African woman. She's still new at this distance however, and it will interesting to see what she takes from this. As I watched a rebroadcast of the marathon Monday night, my heart went out to her as I watched her in tears being interviewed at the finish line. She was so earnest, and so badly wanted this one.

Seth, I'm not sure that was really an underestimation by her team.  Looking back through the records, there are only 3 women's races that were won with a time faster than 2:22 and the last time it happened was 2002.  I really think they hoped that the race would play out like the men's did and she would have built enough of a lead that she'd be able to hold on.  It's not like she completely fell apart and didn't finish well because she went out way too fast, Jeptoo and the others were just better on Monday.  I really hope she keeps at it because she's got so much heart that if she's even close fitness wise, I think she's got a great shot at winning Boston.