Pace strategy for Marathon

My marathon isn't until September, it will be my 13th one and I hope to PR like I've already said a few other places...Anyway, Jerry commented on my Lincoln Marathon report that I could have probably PR'd if I had gone for a PR instead of a 4:05 instead I ran a 4:13 and 4:10 would be a PR. So my question is, should I just aim for 4:10 this fall and if I feel good at the end pick it up or do I go for a little faster time and hope I hang in there?

I'm leaning towards just the 4:10 and not losing speed at the end but I'm grateful for any advice you have!

Hey Julie, I think a lot of it comes down to your training and how you're feeling about the training and where you are at physically. You know you're a tough cookie and you put the work in....I say go for the PR! One thing that may help is joining up with a pace group. I plan on doing that for Chicago because I don't know how to pace myself (or make myself stick to the pace(s) ) during the race. Is a pace group for you a possibility?

Unfortunately they have pace groups for 4:00 and 4:15 and I'm afraid 4:00 would be too aggressive and 4:15 is too unambitious.

I am really pleased with my training so far this summer and in general summer training is great because the heat is so tough and then it's cooler in the fall so Sept should be good in Wisconsin. I'm training with a friend who is a 3:30 marathoner so really she helps me a ton. I won't have any friends at the race to run me in or anything but I will have my 2 yr old and husband to cheer at some point.

I set three goals for each goal race.

A - planets align, perfect temps, right sleep, nutrition and hydration, 100% healthy. Probably a 10% chance of success.

B - what I should be able to achieve. Still generally a "stretch" goal, but my training and past experience tell me it's doable. Maybe a 50% chance of success.

C - an imminently achievable goal, something that if I achieve, that I would probably walk away from the race happy about, but that if I fail to achieve, outside of some external fact like weather, that I'm pretty disappointed about. Maybe 80% - 90% likely.

Then I train to the "A" goal in terms of paces, because if I don't train to it, or find I can't, then it isn't even in the discussion, and I should probably rethink it. Also, training to the "A" goal increases the likelihood of achieving the "B" goal.

I also develop a race day strategy around achieving the "B" goal, but keeping the "A" goal in the discussion, and usually have a point in the race where I'm going to have to make a decision to pick up my pace to achieve the "A" or continue to execute the "B" goal. For me, it was at the 13.1 mile mark in the marathon and the 8 mile mark in the half.

And I have to re-evaluate those goals one last time on race day, and the race day strategy, to take into account the weather and other factors.

Now, that sounds like a lot of planning! But IMO if you don't plan for it, it isn't going to happen. Luck is the residue of design.

Good reply, Big Bro

Just clarify, my comment was meant to say you had the 4:10 ability instead of criticize your goal. Heehee.

I would say for the next, you want to wait to see how the training goes and the race day conditions.

You have done 12 and are still nervous about goal setting this earlier?

Julie wrote:My marathon isn't until September, it will be my 13th one and I hope to PR like I've already said a few other places...Anyway, Jerry commented on my Lincoln Marathon report that I could have probably PR'd if I had gone for a PR instead of a 4:05 instead I ran a 4:13 and 4:10 would be a PR. So my question is, should I just aim for 4:10 this fall and if I feel good at the end pick it up or do I go for a little faster time and hope I hang in there?

I'm leaning towards just the 4:10 and not losing speed at the end but I'm grateful for any advice you have!

Alright let me try and tackle this first part. Now I'm not going to say what works for me will work for you but I will throw it out there. First off I will use the McMillan pace calculator to give me a reference on paces for my different types of runs. So in your case you feel that you are leaning towards a 4:10 marathon. So looking at the major training run paces from McMillan (recovery:11:03-11:33, LR:10:03-11:03, E:10:03-10:33 and Tempo/LT:8:41-9:03)

The first thing I would do is see were your training run paces match-up with these paces. If you find yourself at the end of the range all the time then maybe 4:10 will be a little tough, fall in the middle of the pace ranges all the time I think that 4:10 is right on. If you are hitting the low end or faster then the low end I would say it is time make the goal faster. That is one way of doing to get a bases of what time goal you want to hit on race day. The other way I go about is if 4:10 is your goal then train for a 4:05 marathon. The only key here is that you have to make sure that training paces for the 4:05 marathon are not to fast or are leaving you tired and taxed after your runs, especially after doing your recovery/easy runs. The last thing you want is to be tired on your key effort days.

Another thing that I do is that I never let my goal times be carved in stone. I always have a dream goal that I want to reach but I won't allow that to direct my training. I allow my fitness to direct my training. So if that means at a start of a training cycle I start at were my last marathon time was then I start there, as the cycle goes on I do what I was talking about above. I will look at my training and paces and how I'm feeling and judge what the new goal time is and adjust my paces. The whole time I want to work my way down to my dream goal. If I make it to that then great I know that my fitness has improved and that I'm ready to take on the stress of training at those paces for my dream goal perfect race day plan. If not then that is ok I allow my body, mind and fitness to put at the goal time and training paces that are right for me for that giving time, training cycle and race.

Now when race day comes I will stick with my plan to run the paces that go along with what my training was and what goal time my training is pointing towards. Now the good news is that it can change during the race but not to early in the race. This is the tough part because it is different for everyone. Example is back in 2010 when I was going for my first sub 3 in Boston the plan was to run a 2:59 but my training times and the way I felt was more on par with a 2:57. That day I went out with the 2:57 goal in mind. By the halfway point I felt that I can maybe run faster then 2:57 so I keep up the pace. Then by time I got through the Newton Hills mile 21, I knew at that time I felt good and that I could go under 2:57 and I kept the hammer down and said I was going for the 2:55 ultimate dream A goal. Well I ended up hitting the 2:55.

Now on the flip side of that Chicago 2010 I wanted to run 2:47 as training went on I didn't think that was possible I readjusted my goals and listen to my body and found that a 2:50 would be a better goal. Then 4 days before the race my last key workout didn't go well. I knew that it wasn't just a bad workout but that a 2:50 would be really tough to do. So again I adjusted to at least PR and go under 2:55 but wanted something around 2:51 to 2:53. Like a knucklehead that I am I want to take advantage of the cooler temps that morning and went out at a 2:50 pace. By time I hit the half I knew that was not going to happen and if I stayed on that pace I was looking to due the death march at the end. So I had faith in myself and I eased up and said if I feel fresh again I will pick up the pace and try to get back on a 2:50 pace. It never happen but I did rally to finish in 2:53.

So as you can see training will help give you an idea were you are and what is possible but you have to be honest with yourself and train smart and at the right paces for where your fitness is at. And allow you fitness to get better and then adjust. Then when race day comes it is all up to how that day goes, sometimes you will hit your goal perfect, other times you will have to adjust and then there are times you will feel really good and you push harder and run a faster time then you expect. I hope this helps if you have questions please feel free to ask.

Julie wrote:Unfortunately they have pace groups for 4:00 and 4:15 and I'm afraid 4:00 would be too aggressive and 4:15 is too unambitious.

I am really pleased with my training so far this summer and in general summer training is great because the heat is so tough and then it's cooler in the fall so Sept should be good in Wisconsin. I'm training with a friend who is a 3:30 marathoner so really she helps me a ton. I won't have any friends at the race to run me in or anything but I will have my 2 yr old and husband to cheer at some point.

As for the pace groups yep that is tough to be in between but here is something you can do. You could start out with the 4:15 pace group just to keep you slow and honest at the start. If you are in that 4:10 shape or better I won't stay with them to long maybe 2 to 2.5 miles then I would start to ease your way down to your race plan and paces. The good thing is once you leave them now you have a gage on how your day is going because hopefully you never see them again until after you are done.

Jerry, Oh I didn't feel criticized, I just think you are probably right and I know I went out too fast at the start which I very rarely do but I was pretty happy with my spring training.

Schuey, thanks for all the great info. My training is on the faster end of those calculations, although I don't have exact pace since I don't have a GPS. 10:00 is a pretty slow, conservative run for me and am easily doing 8:30-9:00 on my tempo (run with fast friend) days.

I'm not going to get upset over any finish time, really, I primarily run because it makes me feel good and keeps me out of depression which was a 8 year very dangerous struggle for me until I started running. If I run my best and it's a 4:20, fine, I got another state for my 50 states goal, if I PR, then awesome, all that training paid off but either way I'm not going to get too worked up either way. I would like to run smart, though, and I think figuring out a reasonable goal time will help me there. I want to feel like I pushed myself and did my best and a PR would be icing on the cake.

Julie wrote:Jerry, Oh I didn't feel criticized, I just think you are probably right and I know I went out too fast at the start which I very rarely do but I was pretty happy with my spring training.

Schuey, thanks for all the great info. My training is on the faster end of those calculations, although I don't have exact pace since I don't have a GPS. 10:00 is a pretty slow, conservative run for me and am easily doing 8:30-9:00 on my tempo (run with fast friend) days.

I'm not going to get upset over any finish time, really, I primarily run because it makes me feel good and keeps me out of depression which was a 8 year very dangerous struggle for me until I started running. If I run my best and it's a 4:20, fine, I got another state for my 50 states goal, if I PR, then awesome, all that training paid off but either way I'm not going to get too worked up either way. I would like to run smart, though, and I think figuring out a reasonable goal time will help me there. I want to feel like I pushed myself and did my best and a PR would be icing on the cake.

Well if you are at the faster end of those training paces you may want to think about looking at a little faster marathon time to train for. That is a good sign that your fitness is moving along.
And I hear you about running to feel good. I have always stated that no matter what the clock says at the end of the day as long as I gave it a 100% I will be happy. And if the PR comes with then bonus! I find this the best way to train and race, why add more stress to something that you are suppose to love doing. I had a buddy I use to play golf with and instead of it being fun and relaxing I thought the guy was going to have a heart attack on the course!

Exactly, I'm all for pushing myself and trying to improve but if I over do it or take myself too seriously it will stop being as beneficial.

I think there are two views on setting goals for the goal pace based on training. One is that if the paces seem easy in training, push harder. The other is that if the training paces are easy, then the race will be easy.

By easy I do not mean slow, but an effort you can maintain for the distance.

I try to set an aggressive goal pace early on knowing that it will get easier as my fitness increases and I get accustomed to that pace. If I get closer to the race and it is too hard, I will back off and rethink my goal.

Tim M wrote:I think there are two views on setting goals for the goal pace based on training. One is that if the paces seem easy in training, push harder. The other is that if the training paces are easy, then the race will be easy.

By easy I do not mean slow, but an effort you can maintain for the distance.

I try to set an aggressive goal pace early on knowing that it will get easier as my fitness increases and I get accustomed to that pace. If I get closer to the race and it is too hard, I will back off and rethink my goal.

I'm fine with being aggressive now as long as I know what to do on race morning. I just don't want to go out too fast and end up with positive splits...

Most of my marathons have been maintainable and not feel like dying at the end which makes me think I've very rarely pushed myself hard enough. I did at Lincoln, I know that, I thought I was going to puke or die the last 4 miles but hung in there. But I also started too fast because by mile 14 I could tell I needed to back off or I would be in big trouble the last 5 miles or so.

edit to add, this profile picture was taken at mile 31 of my 50K and you can tell I'm not dead yet...

A 4:05 marathon is a 9:22/mile pace.

The training plan that I normally follow bases all of the paces for the various runs on that goal pace. One of the key workouts in the plan is a pace run up to 10 miles at goal pace. As the race gets closer, this pace should be hard but manageable. If the pace seems too easy, I would adjust the paces and target a faster marathon. If I am struggling to hold it, I would probably back the goal off some.

I think it is key to do some of the runs at the pace you plan on running the race at. You need to teach your body what that pace feels like.

On race day, I would plan on running the pace I trained for unless conditions would not allow that.

So, my questions are, what pace are you training at? What kind of effort is it? And, are you doing pace runs?

My all have to be estimates since I don't own a GPS/Garmin but I just have a watch and sometimes my friends with GPS s give their input and say what we did. Long runs are right around 10:00, then during the week I do a few closer to 9:30 and then an 8 miler and 10 miler around 9:00. 9:45-10:00 is easy for me, very long conversational pace, 9:00 is pushing it but I can manage, definitely more effort.

I did have a friend run a 20 miler with me at marathon pace a few years ago because he has GPS and was going to run the marathon with me. We kept the marathon pace the whole time, I am sure I could ask him to run a 20 miler with me and keep me on pace.

Tim M wrote:I think it is key to do some of the runs at the pace you plan on running the race at. You need to teach your body what that pace feels like.

On race day, I would plan on running the pace I trained for unless conditions would not allow that.

There is no doubt that I agree with Tim on you should be doing MP runs. Which I know you are doing since you are using the Pfitz plan. Now one thing that I do know that is in the Pfitz plans I have used after I think week 10 of a 18 week plan he doesn't have you doing anymore long run MP runs. Now that is were I differ with Pfitz and I like to still add that run in because I feel that it such a huge training run for the marathon.

Again like Tim says by running at what you feel will be your MP on race day the body gets use to it and it won't be a shock to the system on race day. Actually the pace should feel easy for the first half hopefully up to 18 to 20 miles. Why? because when you do these pace runs during training they are being done with all the mileage and some what tired there for it should be simulating what the body will feel like late in the race.

Yes running at plan race day pace on race day is important. Like I said earlier as the race goes and you feel very sure of yourself late in the race you can test the waters of picking up the pace. If you do that and the effort seems to be to much then back off right away back to the original MP. The key to starting out slower is so you don't run faster then goal pace at the start, if you do that you will then spike your glycogen stores which then will in return burn a lot of useful fuel that could be used later in the race. Normally for me after about 2 to 3 miles I like to be at my MP. The first mile depending on the race I like to be 15 to 20 seconds slower and then cutting into that each mile after that.

Julie wrote:My all have to be estimates since I don't own a GPS/Garmin but I just have a watch and sometimes my friends with GPS s give their input and say what we did. Long runs are right around 10:00, then during the week I do a few closer to 9:30 and then an 8 miler and 10 miler around 9:00. 9:45-10:00 is easy for me, very long conversational pace, 9:00 is pushing it but I can manage, definitely more effort.

I did have a friend run a 20 miler with me at marathon pace a few years ago because he has GPS and was going to run the marathon with me. We kept the marathon pace the whole time, I am sure I could ask him to run a 20 miler with me and keep me on pace.

Wow, and at those paces why aren't you thinking 4:00?

A 4:00 finish is a 9:10 pace. You are already doing 10 miles at 9:00 and the easy is only 35-50 seconds slower. I'd be thinking sub-4:00 all day long.

Tim M wrote:

Julie wrote:My all have to be estimates since I don't own a GPS/Garmin but I just have a watch and sometimes my friends with GPS s give their input and say what we did. Long runs are right around 10:00, then during the week I do a few closer to 9:30 and then an 8 miler and 10 miler around 9:00. 9:45-10:00 is easy for me, very long conversational pace, 9:00 is pushing it but I can manage, definitely more effort.

I did have a friend run a 20 miler with me at marathon pace a few years ago because he has GPS and was going to run the marathon with me. We kept the marathon pace the whole time, I am sure I could ask him to run a 20 miler with me and keep me on pace.

Wow, and at those paces why aren't you thinking 4:00?

A 4:00 finish is a 9:10 pace. You are already doing 10 miles at 9:00 and the easy is only 35-50 seconds slower. I'd be thinking sub-4:00 all day long.

+1. The only thing you could possibly be missing at this point is the endurance to go 26.2 at that pace, and that'll come around like nothing.

I'm running this morning with my fast friend and I'm going to ask her about our pace. She just ran 7:00 pace half marathon yesterday. Otherwise, I just am looking at my watch estimating mile pace.

I'm afraid to aim for 4:00 for fear of draining myself the first half and crashing at the end. I am a pretty conservative runner so I really prefer to go out easy and then feel strong at the end. Maybe too strong?

Thank you all the for the advice. I'm training all summer for this and so far have followed the Pfitzinger plan (I think it's 18/55 but not sure since it's just one someone e-mailed me). 18 week, around 45-50 miles most weeks if that helps.

Julie wrote:I'm running this morning with my fast friend and I'm going to ask her about our pace. She just ran 7:00 pace half marathon yesterday. Otherwise, I just am looking at my watch estimating mile pace.

I'm afraid to aim for 4:00 for fear of draining myself the first half and crashing at the end. I am a pretty conservative runner so I really prefer to go out easy and then feel strong at the end. Maybe too strong?

Thank you all the for the advice. I'm training all summer for this and so far have followed the Pfitzinger plan (I think it's 18/55 but not sure since it's just one someone e-mailed me). 18 week, around 45-50 miles most weeks if that helps.

Julie, you and I are doing the same length and type of plan. Martin slightly modified it for me, so it will be cool to be doing close to the same runs/styles of runs. Are you doing 18 miles next week?

Mrs. Schuey wrote:

Julie wrote:I'm running this morning with my fast friend and I'm going to ask her about our pace. She just ran 7:00 pace half marathon yesterday. Otherwise, I just am looking at my watch estimating mile pace.

I'm afraid to aim for 4:00 for fear of draining myself the first half and crashing at the end. I am a pretty conservative runner so I really prefer to go out easy and then feel strong at the end. Maybe too strong?

Thank you all the for the advice. I'm training all summer for this and so far have followed the Pfitzinger plan (I think it's 18/55 but not sure since it's just one someone e-mailed me). 18 week, around 45-50 miles most weeks if that helps.

Julie, you and I are doing the same length and type of plan. Martin slightly modified it for me, so it will be cool to be doing close to the same runs/styles of runs. Are you doing 18 miles next week?

I have 12 next weekend, 18, and then 20. I'm not sure of this official name, Cindy Southgate emailed it to me several yrs ago (I don't know if she's been around lately but she was on the forum). I've attempted this plan a couple of times in the past and didn't do well because I lacked the really solid base I needed but running has been very solid since February so this really hasn't been a problem. Do you get 2 rest/XT days a week? Does the second number stand for the max miles? If so, I could figure out what I'm doing...I usually take one of the rest days and just run easy.

Oh and I timed mile 12 of my run today just to see the pace since it was from a pretty clear mile point on my route and it was 8:52, it was faster than my average pace, I'm sure, but I tried to match what I do on my tempo days. I asked my friend, too, and she said we run 9:00 or slightly faster for our 8 and 10 mile runs.

Julie wrote:I'm afraid to aim for 4:00 for fear of draining myself the first half and crashing at the end. I am a pretty conservative runner so I really prefer to go out easy and then feel strong at the end. Maybe too strong?

At the miles you are putting in each week and the paces you are running in training, you really need to rethink the "strong" finish. It really sounds like you have too much in the tank at the end and you left a lot of time out on the course.

Julie wrote:Oh and I timed mile 12 of my run today just to see the pace since it was from a pretty clear mile point on my route and it was 8:52, it was faster than my average pace, I'm sure, but I tried to match what I do on my tempo days. I asked my friend, too, and she said we run 9:00 or slightly faster for our 8 and 10 mile runs.

If you are running those paces, you really are setting your goals too slow. Most people would try to run a faster pace than they've trained for, but you are targeting a goal race pace 30 seconds slower than your training.

Julie, if you can go 20 miles @MP, you need to go sub 4. No doubt. Besides the MP training suggested above, try run it relaxed both physically and mentally to improve running economy. If you worry about if you will fade at the end, you will fade even if you have it physically. When you are not relaxed, you consume more energy.

I would recommend shooting for the PR for one very important reason: You have to race within your ability to learn to execute pace properly. Then, in future races, you'll have the necessary experience to know when to push it more.

In Chicago last year I had a goal time for the markers at mile 9 and 18, <1:02 and <2:04, respectively (gun time). If I came in a minute or more faster than those times I would call that a FAIL. Most important in the first 9 miles to hold back the pace when I'm fresh and wanting to run faster.n I hit mile 9 at 1:02 on the nose and mile 18 at 2:03 and change. Now, this was clock time, and I started 24 seconds after the gun so I was actually :24 faster (which I'd planned on). Executing the race based on acheivable intra-race goals taught me patience and control of effort. In the closing miles I'd conserved enough that I had gas at the end to hold pace and actually pick up the pace in the final mile.

My point is it was my 48th marathon and the first one where I had a realistic pace plan, managed it during the race, and hit the goal at the finish line. Now that I know how to do that, and what it feels like, I can choose to risk a little more in the future... intelligent risk, based on knowing what a well-executed race 'feels like'.

That said, if your fitness is so much better that your PR goal feels like 'a gimme', then I'd probably want you to shoot for a couple of minutes faster than your PR, but not so much that you risk a blow up.

Mr MattM wrote:I would recommend shooting for the PR for one very important reason: You have to race within your ability to learn to execute pace properly. Then, in future races, you'll have the necessary experience to know when to push it more.

In Chicago last year I had a goal time for the markers at mile 9 and 18, <1:02 and <2:04, respectively (gun time). If I came in a minute or more faster than those times I would call that a FAIL. Most important in the first 9 miles to hold back the pace when I'm fresh and wanting to run faster.n I hit mile 9 at 1:02 on the nose and mile 18 at 2:03 and change. Now, this was clock time, and I started 24 seconds after the gun so I was actually :24 faster (which I'd planned on). Executing the race based on acheivable intra-race goals taught me patience and control of effort. In the closing miles I'd conserved enough that I had gas at the end to hold pace and actually pick up the pace in the final mile.

My point is it was my 48th marathon and the first one where I had a realistic pace plan, managed it during the race, and hit the goal at the finish line. Now that I know how to do that, and what it feels like, I can choose to risk a little more in the future... intelligent risk, based on knowing what a well-executed race 'feels like'.

That said, if your fitness is so much better that your PR goal feels like 'a gimme', then I'd probably want you to shoot for a couple of minutes faster than your PR, but not so much that you risk a blow up.

Well said Matt.

From a training standpoint, your paces would indicate a sub-4 would be a reasonable target.

The real issue is the mental side of the race. You have to believe you can do it. And like Matt said, have a race strategy that you believe you can execute.

While you have the fitness to run sub-4, if the mental side is not there, then targeting the PR and gaining confidence for the next one is probably the best bet.