Odds for a US Olympic marathon medal

My take on medal possibilities, in order of OT finish:

MEN
Meb has PR'd in his last two marathons. So he's obviously in the best
shape of his life. But he'll need another PR and a major heatwave to
medal in London. Meb is great in the heat.
Odds to medal: 20-1, but 5-1 if it's over 80 degrees.

Hall needs to train at altitude before London. Staying at sea level
before the trials hurt him at the end of the race. Even though he made it look easy
and he wasn't striving for his best, he also wasn't AT HIS BEST. He'll be better in London but he'll still be outclassed.
Odds to medal: 8-1

Abdi will go for it, but he will fade and end up out of the top 20. There's just too much talent out there on the men's side for Abdi to sneak in.
Odds to medal: 50-1.

WOMEN
Shalane is indeed a medal contender and the only American with a
legitimate shot to win it all. She's the only one on the same level as
the top women in the world.
Odds to medal: 4-1.

Desi is a smart racer with a lot of heart. But she'll be outclassed in London. But she's also short, which would give her a boost if it's unusually hot.
Odds to medal: 20-1, but 8-1 if it's over 80 degrees.

Kara will be in better shape by the time London rolls around. But she'll still be a long shot shot for bronze. I give her slightly better odds than Desi because she's slightly more talented.
Odds to medal: 18-1

Interesting take on the odds of a medal.

I enthusiastically wait for summer with great anticipation.

I tend to agree with your take, Stan. I think it will be a major long shot for our men to medal, but our women definitely have a chance. Of course, I don't think anyone would have given Meb high odds to win the silver in Athens, so who knows.

I actually think Hall will have a better shot in London over Meb but don't think any American Male will place in the top 3.

Woman I tend to like Shalane "Sea Bass" Flanagan for a top 3 place and Desi to out run Goucher. I think Goucher has true grit but not sure she can keep up with the competition give her top 7.

Hall 6
Abdi 8
Meb 10+

Shalane 2
Desi 5
Groucher 7

Those are my pics as of today!

Kenny B. wrote:I actually think Hall will have a better shot in London over Meb but don't think any American Male will place in the top 3.

Woman I tend to like Shalane "Sea Bass" Flanagan for a top 3 place and Desi to out run Goucher. I think Goucher has true grit but not sure she can keep up with the competition give her top 7.

Hall 6
Abdi 8
Meb 10+

Shalane 2
Desi 5
Groucher 7

Those are my pics as of today!

Are those your odds or is that where you think they will place?

That's where I think they will place. I don't know much about odds.

I'm putting $100 each on Desi and Kara to medal at Stan's odds. Well, not the lowered odds for Desi if it is hot. But at the 18-1 and 20-1 odds, I really like my bets. For the men? 8-1 seems about right for Hall. A lot a lot a lot of things would have to go right for him and wrong for others in the race for him to medal. There will likely be 3 sub 2:04 guys in the race just from Keyna!! Who of those is Hall going to beat, let alone the other guys from other countries in the race. Yikes, that will be a fast race.

What are the odds that Hall leads the race for some significant portion of the first half?

I think a lot will have to do with the weather since they run these Olympic races sometimes at the hottest times of the day. The heat definitely favors the African runners. To early to make a prediction. Shalane is definitely a favorite to medal among the US runners.

John Kilpatrick wrote:What are the odds that Hall leads the race for some significant portion of the first half?

I'll put my life savings on "yes," John.

John Kilpatrick wrote:What are the odds that Hall leads the race for some significant portion of the first half?

+1

fostever wrote:I think a lot will have to do with the weather since they run these Olympic races sometimes at the hottest times of the day. The heat definitely favors the African runners. To early to make a prediction. Shalane is definitely a favorite to medal among the US runners.

I just read that the women's race will be run at 11:00am. I assume the men's race will go off at the same time.

As we saw in Athens, the heat does not necessarily favor African runners. On the men's side the first African finished 7th.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/olympics_2004/athletics/results/3532860.stm

The African women did better, placing 2nd and 4th. But one Kenyan and one Ethiopian DNF'd.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/olympics_2004/athletics/results/3532868.stm

I don't think heat favors Africans. Heat does favor short runners though. That's a proven fact.

Stan

ssilvert wrote:

fostever wrote:I think a lot will have to do with the weather since they run these Olympic races sometimes at the hottest times of the day. The heat definitely favors the African runners. To early to make a prediction. Shalane is definitely a favorite to medal among the US runners.

I just read that the women's race will be run at 11:00am. I assume the men's race will go off at the same time.

As we saw in Athens, the heat does not necessarily favor African runners. On the men's side the first African finished 7th.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/olympics_2004/athletics/results/3532860.stm

The African women did better, placing 2nd and 4th. But one Kenyan and one Ethiopian DNF'd.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/olympics_2004/athletics/results/3532868.stm

I don't think heat favors Africans. Heat does favor short runners though. That's a proven fact.

Stan

Well let's see, 2004 silver medalist Meb is originally from where? Also what about the 2008 Olympic sauna? Sammy was from where? Also 7 Africans in the top 8 in 2008 on the men's side.

fostever wrote:

ssilvert wrote:

I don't think heat favors Africans. Heat does favor short runners though. That's a proven fact.

Stan

Well let's see, 2004 silver medalist Meb is originally from where? Also what about the 2008 Olympic sauna? Sammy was from where? Also 7 Africans in the top 8 in 2008 on the men's side.

Genetically, Meb is from the same part of the world as the other (more talented) East Africans he beat. For instance, the great Paul Tergat ran that race but finished 10th. He's five inches taller than Meb. The difference was Meb's size, not his genetics. It actually helps to prove my point.

2008 wasn't as hot as 2004. Starting temp in 2008 was 74 degrees. 2004 starting temp was 80. That's a fairly big difference as heat tolerance doesn't scale linearly. But as far as it goes, Sammy was only 5' 4", so he had a nice height advantage over most of the field in 2008.

I can state unequivocally that there is no proven advantage to African heritage when it comes to racing in the heat. But it is a proven fact that shorter runners handle it better than taller runners.

Stan

As a gambling man, I can't argue with your odds. Seem pretty accurate to me.

Odds are pretty good.

But I have to disagree with your one comment about Kara being more talented than Desi. To me talent is just as much about being able to put in the hard work and not get injured.

I will bet anyone $20 if both are injury-free in training that Desi beats Kara in London. Any takers? We can even settle up over PayPal post race

Ben Z wrote:Odds are pretty good.

But I have to disagree with your one comment about Kara being more talented than Desi. To me talent is just as much about being able to put in the hard work and not get injured.

I will bet anyone $20 if both are injury-free in training that Desi beats Kara in London. Any takers? We can even settle up over PayPal post race

I'm taking the bet. Go Kara! Assuming both start (we'll use that as the injury test) $20 to you if Desi beats Kara and vice versa.

Deal Chris! Should I give you my gmail address for payment now or do you wanna wait until mile 25 when Desi is 2 minutes up?

Can't believe I'm saying this btw because I love Kara (but maybe more so for other reasons)

Ben Z wrote:Odds are pretty good.

But I have to disagree with your one comment about Kara being more talented than Desi. To me talent is just as much about being able to put in the hard work and not get injured.

I will bet anyone $20 if both are injury-free in training that Desi beats Kara in London. Any takers? We can even settle up over PayPal post race

Good point. And Desi is 2-0 against Kara in their last two races. So that counts for something.

But I wouldn't take any bets on that. It's too close to call.

Stan

Ben Z wrote:Deal Chris! Should I give you my gmail address for payment now or do you wanna wait until mile 25 when Desi is 2 minutes up?

Can't believe I'm saying this btw because I love Kara (but maybe more so for other reasons)

We'll definitely have a live Olympic marathon tracking thread going here - although I still have some long shot hopes that work sends me to London then...not likely - and we'll trash talk each other during that and settle up after one of them MEDALS to win the bet!

Hmm, no love for Shalane then, huh:?:

BTW, I am still trying to understand Hanson's plan for the masses(on RWOL, or RT), which is basically a watered down HH program with two speed days(one being MP) and a long run that maxes out at 16 miles and about 65 miles per week.