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Building A Better Bumblebee

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Michele "1L" Keane
Julie
Dave P
mul21
nkrichards
Mike MacLellan
T Miller
Nick Morris
Tim C
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Post  Mark B Tue Dec 08, 2015 1:13 pm

Barefoot Run: 3.1 miles

Weather: Balmy, cloudy, between showers. 59° Gear: Bare feet, shorts, T, jacket (peeled), hat (removed quickly)

We're in the middle of a warm, wet weather system, so I was hoping to go frolic in the rain... but it stopped before I got out the door. The pavement was nice and wet, though, so there's that. (I didn't get a run in on Monday due to other demands, which means I missed out on a epic deluge. Oh well.)

I didn't get a run in yesterday, so I felt pretty fresh. My HR stayed fairly low for most of the run, and the paces were decent. I punched it a bit in the last 100 meters for form purposes, and it felt good, too.

Average HR: 134. Max: 151

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Post  ounce Tue Dec 08, 2015 4:38 pm

"Singing in the Rain" or "Barefoot in the Park" or which movie?

Looks like the Pineapple Express is wearing some deep wagon tracks in the Pacific before it hits y'all.  I saw where the end of El Nino has occurred, as reported by one of the local weather dudes on FB.

I guess with no cold air, Snowmageddon is not likely in your neighborhood?  Any forecast for the cold air with the rain, soon?
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Post  Mark B Tue Dec 08, 2015 7:33 pm

ounce wrote:"Singing in the Rain" or "Barefoot in the Park" or which movie?

Looks like the Pineapple Express is wearing some deep wagon tracks in the Pacific before it hits y'all.  I saw where the end of El Nino has occurred, as reported by one of the local weather dudes on FB.

I guess with no cold air, Snowmageddon is not likely in your neighborhood?  Any forecast for the cold air with the rain, soon?

It was only wet pavement when I was running (looks like a monsoon out the window now), so I guess "Barefoot in the Park" would be the appropriate film.

Had to research the El Niño claim. I saw that some researchers believed it had reached it's peak (the Niño in question is the Christ child, so that's not a surprise as it coincides with the celebration of his birth), though the impact is likely to be with us for some time. That peak was a record and the weather this fall has been pretty odd.

It was nearly 60 this morning, which is rather amazing for this time of year. It would have been better if it had been 20 degrees cooler, so the moisture fell as snow in the mountains, but no.

Imagine, though, if this much moisture collided with a polar punch? Let's see, NWS says 1 inch of rain equals about 13 inches of snow, so the about 5 inches of rain we've gotten since Sunday would work out to... about 65 inches of snow?! Crimminy. Shocked

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Post  Michele "1L" Keane Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:58 pm

I hope that it hasn't peaked yet as it has been unseasonably warm here in NE OH.  I actually ran today in SHORTS with a long sleeve shirt and vest and it is supposed to be in the 60s this weekend.  My training log from the last two years indicate snow this week, and there was a pretty sizable blizzard on this date back in 2010 here in Cleveland.  Many folks are kind of hoping for a "white" Christmas, but I'm hoping that any "Whiteness" is just the kind of dusting we have had a couple of times.
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Post  Mark B Wed Dec 09, 2015 9:18 pm

Michele \"1L" Keane wrote:I hope that it hasn't peaked yet as it has been unseasonably warm here in NE OH.  I actually ran today in SHORTS with a long sleeve shirt and vest and it is supposed to be in the 60s this weekend.  My training log from the last two years indicate snow this week, and there was a pretty sizable blizzard on this date back in 2010 here in Cleveland.  Many folks are kind of hoping for a "white" Christmas, but I'm hoping that any "Whiteness" is just the kind of dusting we have had a couple of times.

It sure has been a different sort of autumn, hasn't it, Michele? We've had 5.73 inches of rain in a 72-hour period that ended this morning, with 2.24 of them coming yesterday. That's an unusually large amount of rain -- it usually just drizzles for days -- and it's caused a good number of problems. It's been unusually warm, too, so no snow in the mountains, though we may get snow up there later this week. Crossing fingers. We need it.

Not seeing a huge break in these weather conditions, either. So you may still be able to use those shorts a while longer. Don't forget sunscreen! sunny

Hard to believe that, two years ago, we were looking at an arctic outbreak and insanely low temperatures for these parts.

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Post  Mark B Fri Dec 11, 2015 4:30 pm

Trail Run: About 4.8 miles (GPS map says closer to 5.2 miles)

Weather: Rainy and cool. 44° Gear: Lone Peaks, pants, long-sleeved T, jacket, hat, gloves (shed). No water or fuel.

It's been extremely rainy this past week, so I decided to head to my local forest to see how the recently weatherproofed trails held up to the deluge. This place used to get so muddy it could (and actually did once) suck off a shoe. Some people love those sorts of conditions, but I guess I'd rather move through the landscape than wallow in it.

Because of that, this run was as much an exploration as a workout. I hit "secret" single-track trails shown only on maps you can find deep inside the park and cruised through the more buffed-out sections. I even did my good deed for the day and removed part of a tree that had fallen on a trail. The verdict? Wow. These trails are seriously all weather now. Woot! I was able to find mud (and almost do a butt-plant a couple of times) but that was when I was exploring off the main path.

The run was very extemporaneous. As in, I hit a junction and decided what I wanted to do, and where I wanted to go on the spot. I ran some parts faster, and walked others. I even ended the run by bombing down a hill and then shifted into hill-climbing mode all the was up the other side to my car (hitting a HR of 178). A nice mixed bag.

Walked first and last 5 minutes. Average HR for entire run: 140. Max: 178

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Post  ounce Fri Dec 11, 2015 7:05 pm

Mark B wrote:
Michele \"1L" Keane wrote:I hope that it hasn't peaked yet as it has been unseasonably warm here in NE OH.  I actually ran today in SHORTS with a long sleeve shirt and vest and it is supposed to be in the 60s this weekend.  My training log from the last two years indicate snow this week, and there was a pretty sizable blizzard on this date back in 2010 here in Cleveland.  Many folks are kind of hoping for a "white" Christmas, but I'm hoping that any "Whiteness" is just the kind of dusting we have had a couple of times.

It sure has been a different sort of autumn, hasn't it, Michele? We've had 5.73 inches of rain in a 72-hour period that ended this morning, with 2.24 of them coming yesterday. That's an unusually large amount of rain -- it usually just drizzles for days -- and it's caused a good number of problems. It's been unusually warm, too, so no snow in the mountains, though we may get snow up there later this week. Crossing fingers. We need it.

Not seeing a huge break in these weather conditions, either. So you may still be able to use those shorts a while longer. Don't forget sunscreen! sunny

Hard to believe that, two years ago, we were looking at an arctic outbreak and insanely low temperatures for these parts.
It was 70 degrees, this morning, which is 5 degrees warmer than the seasonal high for us.  The rain that was on the west coast earlier in the week will be arriving Sunday morning around 6.  My race starts at 6:30.  No sunscreen for that race.
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Post  Mark B Fri Dec 11, 2015 9:56 pm

ounce wrote:
Mark B wrote:
Michele \"1L" Keane wrote:I hope that it hasn't peaked yet as it has been unseasonably warm here in NE OH.  I actually ran today in SHORTS with a long sleeve shirt and vest and it is supposed to be in the 60s this weekend.  My training log from the last two years indicate snow this week, and there was a pretty sizable blizzard on this date back in 2010 here in Cleveland.  Many folks are kind of hoping for a "white" Christmas, but I'm hoping that any "Whiteness" is just the kind of dusting we have had a couple of times.

It sure has been a different sort of autumn, hasn't it, Michele? We've had 5.73 inches of rain in a 72-hour period that ended this morning, with 2.24 of them coming yesterday. That's an unusually large amount of rain -- it usually just drizzles for days -- and it's caused a good number of problems. It's been unusually warm, too, so no snow in the mountains, though we may get snow up there later this week. Crossing fingers. We need it.

Not seeing a huge break in these weather conditions, either. So you may still be able to use those shorts a while longer. Don't forget sunscreen! sunny

Hard to believe that, two years ago, we were looking at an arctic outbreak and insanely low temperatures for these parts.
It was 70 degrees, this morning, which is 5 degrees warmer than the seasonal high for us.  The rain that was on the west coast earlier in the week will be arriving Sunday morning around 6.  My race starts at 6:30.  No sunscreen for that race.

Well, with any luck, our rare tornado that rolled through our county yesterday will NOT be bouncing over to Texas.

Good luck on your race! And 70 degrees seems positively tropical at this point.

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Post  ounce Mon Dec 14, 2015 6:22 pm

Mark B wrote:
ounce wrote:
Mark B wrote:
Michele \"1L" Keane wrote:I hope that it hasn't peaked yet as it has been unseasonably warm here in NE OH.  I actually ran today in SHORTS with a long sleeve shirt and vest and it is supposed to be in the 60s this weekend.  My training log from the last two years indicate snow this week, and there was a pretty sizable blizzard on this date back in 2010 here in Cleveland.  Many folks are kind of hoping for a "white" Christmas, but I'm hoping that any "Whiteness" is just the kind of dusting we have had a couple of times.

It sure has been a different sort of autumn, hasn't it, Michele? We've had 5.73 inches of rain in a 72-hour period that ended this morning, with 2.24 of them coming yesterday. That's an unusually large amount of rain -- it usually just drizzles for days -- and it's caused a good number of problems. It's been unusually warm, too, so no snow in the mountains, though we may get snow up there later this week. Crossing fingers. We need it.

Not seeing a huge break in these weather conditions, either. So you may still be able to use those shorts a while longer. Don't forget sunscreen! sunny

Hard to believe that, two years ago, we were looking at an arctic outbreak and insanely low temperatures for these parts.
It was 70 degrees, this morning, which is 5 degrees warmer than the seasonal high for us.  The rain that was on the west coast earlier in the week will be arriving Sunday morning around 6.  My race starts at 6:30.  No sunscreen for that race.

Well, with any luck, our rare tornado that rolled through our county yesterday will NOT be bouncing over to Texas.

Good luck on your race! And 70 degrees seems positively tropical at this point.
Yeppers, it is.  Even now with yesterday afternoon at 54 degrees, today the wind is out of the SW and it got up to 73 today, after a morning low of 46.  I think we're hitting seasonal Wednesday.  Nobody's hoping for a whiiiite Christmas, here.
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Post  Mark B Mon Dec 14, 2015 8:55 pm

ounce wrote:
Mark B wrote:
ounce wrote:
Mark B wrote:
Michele \"1L" Keane wrote:I hope that it hasn't peaked yet as it has been unseasonably warm here in NE OH.  I actually ran today in SHORTS with a long sleeve shirt and vest and it is supposed to be in the 60s this weekend.  My training log from the last two years indicate snow this week, and there was a pretty sizable blizzard on this date back in 2010 here in Cleveland.  Many folks are kind of hoping for a "white" Christmas, but I'm hoping that any "Whiteness" is just the kind of dusting we have had a couple of times.

It sure has been a different sort of autumn, hasn't it, Michele? We've had 5.73 inches of rain in a 72-hour period that ended this morning, with 2.24 of them coming yesterday. That's an unusually large amount of rain -- it usually just drizzles for days -- and it's caused a good number of problems. It's been unusually warm, too, so no snow in the mountains, though we may get snow up there later this week. Crossing fingers. We need it.

Not seeing a huge break in these weather conditions, either. So you may still be able to use those shorts a while longer. Don't forget sunscreen! sunny

Hard to believe that, two years ago, we were looking at an arctic outbreak and insanely low temperatures for these parts.
It was 70 degrees, this morning, which is 5 degrees warmer than the seasonal high for us.  The rain that was on the west coast earlier in the week will be arriving Sunday morning around 6.  My race starts at 6:30.  No sunscreen for that race.

Well, with any luck, our rare tornado that rolled through our county yesterday will NOT be bouncing over to Texas.

Good luck on your race! And 70 degrees seems positively tropical at this point.
Yeppers, it is.  Even now with yesterday afternoon at 54 degrees, today the wind is out of the SW and it got up to 73 today, after a morning low of 46.  I think we're hitting seasonal Wednesday.  Nobody's hoping for a whiiiite Christmas, here.

Hey! I saw something odd in the sky today. I'm not sure, but I think it might have been a self-sustaining fusion reaction thankfully about 93 million miles away. Very nice to see. The clouds also cleared out, with surprising speed, which means that it'll get down to near freezing tonight. Hope we don't get too much black ice in the morning.

One upside of this rainy spell is that it finally got cold enough to drop several feet of snow at higher elevations. Hope it'll stay up there and build, since we really need it, and not just for skiing.

More moisture coming soon, so back to the gloom. Good thing I finally got the Christmas lights up. santa

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Post  ounce Mon Dec 14, 2015 11:48 pm

Mark B wrote:
ounce wrote:
Mark B wrote:
ounce wrote:
Mark B wrote:
Michele \"1L" Keane wrote:I hope that it hasn't peaked yet as it has been unseasonably warm here in NE OH.  I actually ran today in SHORTS with a long sleeve shirt and vest and it is supposed to be in the 60s this weekend.  My training log from the last two years indicate snow this week, and there was a pretty sizable blizzard on this date back in 2010 here in Cleveland.  Many folks are kind of hoping for a "white" Christmas, but I'm hoping that any "Whiteness" is just the kind of dusting we have had a couple of times.

It sure has been a different sort of autumn, hasn't it, Michele? We've had 5.73 inches of rain in a 72-hour period that ended this morning, with 2.24 of them coming yesterday. That's an unusually large amount of rain -- it usually just drizzles for days -- and it's caused a good number of problems. It's been unusually warm, too, so no snow in the mountains, though we may get snow up there later this week. Crossing fingers. We need it.

Not seeing a huge break in these weather conditions, either. So you may still be able to use those shorts a while longer. Don't forget sunscreen! sunny

Hard to believe that, two years ago, we were looking at an arctic outbreak and insanely low temperatures for these parts.
It was 70 degrees, this morning, which is 5 degrees warmer than the seasonal high for us.  The rain that was on the west coast earlier in the week will be arriving Sunday morning around 6.  My race starts at 6:30.  No sunscreen for that race.

Well, with any luck, our rare tornado that rolled through our county yesterday will NOT be bouncing over to Texas.

Good luck on your race! And 70 degrees seems positively tropical at this point.
Yeppers, it is.  Even now with yesterday afternoon at 54 degrees, today the wind is out of the SW and it got up to 73 today, after a morning low of 46.  I think we're hitting seasonal Wednesday.  Nobody's hoping for a whiiiite Christmas, here.

Hey! I saw something odd in the sky today. I'm not sure, but I think it might have been a self-sustaining fusion reaction thankfully about 93 million miles away. Very nice to see. The clouds also cleared out, with surprising speed, which means that it'll get down to near freezing tonight. Hope we don't get too much black ice in the morning.

One upside of this rainy spell is that it finally got cold enough to drop several feet of snow at higher elevations. Hope it'll stay up there and build, since we really need it, and not just for skiing.

More moisture coming soon, so back to the gloom. Good thing I finally got the Christmas lights up. santa
I guess that answers my question in Nancy's blog about rain.

And that self-sustaining fusion is caused by Solar Warming.
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Post  Mark B Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:27 am

ounce wrote:
Mark B wrote:
ounce wrote:
Mark B wrote:
ounce wrote:
Mark B wrote:
Michele \"1L" Keane wrote:I hope that it hasn't peaked yet as it has been unseasonably warm here in NE OH.  I actually ran today in SHORTS with a long sleeve shirt and vest and it is supposed to be in the 60s this weekend.  My training log from the last two years indicate snow this week, and there was a pretty sizable blizzard on this date back in 2010 here in Cleveland.  Many folks are kind of hoping for a "white" Christmas, but I'm hoping that any "Whiteness" is just the kind of dusting we have had a couple of times.

It sure has been a different sort of autumn, hasn't it, Michele? We've had 5.73 inches of rain in a 72-hour period that ended this morning, with 2.24 of them coming yesterday. That's an unusually large amount of rain -- it usually just drizzles for days -- and it's caused a good number of problems. It's been unusually warm, too, so no snow in the mountains, though we may get snow up there later this week. Crossing fingers. We need it.

Not seeing a huge break in these weather conditions, either. So you may still be able to use those shorts a while longer. Don't forget sunscreen! sunny

Hard to believe that, two years ago, we were looking at an arctic outbreak and insanely low temperatures for these parts.
It was 70 degrees, this morning, which is 5 degrees warmer than the seasonal high for us.  The rain that was on the west coast earlier in the week will be arriving Sunday morning around 6.  My race starts at 6:30.  No sunscreen for that race.

Well, with any luck, our rare tornado that rolled through our county yesterday will NOT be bouncing over to Texas.

Good luck on your race! And 70 degrees seems positively tropical at this point.
Yeppers, it is.  Even now with yesterday afternoon at 54 degrees, today the wind is out of the SW and it got up to 73 today, after a morning low of 46.  I think we're hitting seasonal Wednesday.  Nobody's hoping for a whiiiite Christmas, here.

Hey! I saw something odd in the sky today. I'm not sure, but I think it might have been a self-sustaining fusion reaction thankfully about 93 million miles away. Very nice to see. The clouds also cleared out, with surprising speed, which means that it'll get down to near freezing tonight. Hope we don't get too much black ice in the morning.

One upside of this rainy spell is that it finally got cold enough to drop several feet of snow at higher elevations. Hope it'll stay up there and build, since we really need it, and not just for skiing.

More moisture coming soon, so back to the gloom. Good thing I finally got the Christmas lights up. santa
I guess that answers my question in Nancy's blog about rain.

And that self-sustaining fusion is caused by Solar Warming.

Yes, very glad we're getting snow up in the mountains instead of buckets of rain. Of course, the worst flooding around here has happened when we got a big dose of snow followed by a Pineapple Express system that brings gobs of warm rain that melts off snow rapidly and causes serious problems. Last time that happened was 1996. (It gets folks in lower-elevation parts of Oregon more than it does here in Vancouver, but it can cause some trouble along the Columbia River.)

In December 1964, heavy snow followed by unusually warm temperatures and torrential rain triggered what became known as the Christmas Flood of 1964, which caused $430 million in property damage and killed 47 people across a four-state region. The Columbia River crested at 27.7 feet on Dec. 25, 1964.  (Source here)

The river elevation in the winter is usually 7 to 8 feet. So that sort of scenario would be problematic. Neutral


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Post  Mark B Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:50 pm

Barefoot Run: 3.1 miles

Weather: Overcast, chilly. 37° Gear: Bare feet, tights, long-sleeved T, pullover, jacket, hat, gloves.

Gray and chilly out this morning, but I couldn't resist the urge to do a barefoot run. It starts getting a little tricky when the temperature's in the 30s, but I've found that overdressing for the conditions allows excess body heat to get shunted to my feet. Not immediately, of course -- from .25 to about a mile in can be a bit uncomfortable -- but it does get better.

The garbage trucks were doing laps around the block, so I took a slightly different route to avoid racing them (I'm not *that* much of an exhibitionist) and ended up exploring the varied surfaces of our larger neighborhood. Even though all the streets are about the same age, there can be quite a lot of variability. Which is probably good for me. Don't want those feet falling asleep on me.

I kept at about my low HR target and enjoyed paces in the 10s. I picked it up a bit in the last mile and made that my quickest one, which felt nice.

Average HR for entire run: 139 Max 151

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Post  ounce Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:18 pm

And your heart is not revolting at that HR?  Are you trying to BREAK IT?!?!?!?!? Rolling Eyes 

Regarding your feet and cold weather, would you say that if your head was uncovered in similar weather and you had shoes on that your head would adjust about like your feet do when they are uncovered?
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Post  Mark B Wed Dec 16, 2015 2:32 pm

ounce wrote:And your heart is not revolting at that HR?  Are you trying to BREAK IT?!?!?!?!? Rolling Eyes 

Regarding your feet and cold weather, would you say that if your head was uncovered in similar weather and you had shoes on that your head would adjust about like your feet do when they are uncovered?

Actually, my heart seems to like it. Lowering that low HR target so much last year didn't yield the expected benefits for the aggravation of going even slower than I did already. So I'm experimenting with going back to what I had, and mixing in some even higher-intensity work, in case I have become anaerobically deficient. (They say intensity has some benefit for older folks, so I thought it might be good to test it out before I get, you know, older.)

I'd say the foot-head comparison is true. Heat's got to go somewhere.

There are even tip sheets for running barefoot in cold. They suggest training the body to shunt heat to the feet by sleeping under heavy covers with the bare feet protruding from the bottom. Heat's got to go somewhere as the body seeks equilibrium, after all.

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Post  ounce Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:02 pm

Mark B wrote:
ounce wrote:And your heart is not revolting at that HR?  Are you trying to BREAK IT?!?!?!?!? Rolling Eyes 

Regarding your feet and cold weather, would you say that if your head was uncovered in similar weather and you had shoes on that your head would adjust about like your feet do when they are uncovered?

Actually, my heart seems to like it. Lowering that low HR target so much last year didn't yield the expected benefits for the aggravation of going even slower than I did already. So I'm experimenting with going back to what I had, and mixing in some even higher-intensity work, in case I have become anaerobically deficient. (They say intensity has some benefit for older folks, so I thought it might be good to test it out before I get, you know, older.)

I'd say the foot-head comparison is true. Heat's got to go somewhere.

There are even tip sheets for running barefoot in cold. They suggest training the body to shunt heat to the feet by sleeping under heavy covers with the bare feet protruding from the bottom. Heat's got to go somewhere as the body seeks equilibrium, after all.
I'm glad you found a point of diminishing returns on HR.  I sorta came to that conclusion, as well.  I think it would be a good thing for someone who can't exert a higher HR, but still wants to run (and hope to hell they weren't a speed demon to begin with) or exercise at a comfortable HR.

Higher intensity stuff still can give you not-quite-a-spring-chicken-anymore people that needed validation that you still have something left of what you think you used to have.  Go for it, then take your Metamucil afterwards.  (The phrase used to be take your Geritol, but they don't play those commercials anymore.)
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Post  Mark B Wed Dec 16, 2015 4:45 pm

ounce wrote:I'm glad you found a point of diminishing returns on HR.  I sorta came to that conclusion, as well.  I think it would be a good thing for someone who can't exert a higher HR, but still wants to run (and hope to hell they weren't a speed demon to begin with) or exercise at a comfortable HR.

Higher intensity stuff still can give you not-quite-a-spring-chicken-anymore people that needed validation that you still have something left of what you think you used to have.  Go for it, then take your Metamucil afterwards.  (The phrase used to be take your Geritol, but they don't play those commercials anymore.)

The cool thing about a point of diminishing returns? It suggests there may also be a sweet spot. I hope I've found it.

Adding in higher-intensity stuff means changes in approaches, like running fewer miles and getting more rest, but my reading suggests that keeping the cardiac system stimulated may yield more benefits as we age than simple mitochondrial growth. (To a significant extent, perhaps, the benefits from those adaptations have already been dialed in?)

There's a practical reason for a change-up in strategy, too. I was slowing down so much doing the ultra-low-HR running over the past year that it was becoming clear that I was getting too slow to hit the cut-offs needed to take part in some of the longer trail races I've wanted to do. Back of the pack I can handle (especially as a fledgling geezer), but getting pulled for time and not being able to finish, even on a good day? Yeah, that's just not going to work for me.

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Post  ounce Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:21 pm

Mark B wrote:
ounce wrote:I'm glad you found a point of diminishing returns on HR.  I sorta came to that conclusion, as well.  I think it would be a good thing for someone who can't exert a higher HR, but still wants to run (and hope to hell they weren't a speed demon to begin with) or exercise at a comfortable HR.

Higher intensity stuff still can give you not-quite-a-spring-chicken-anymore people that needed validation that you still have something left of what you think you used to have.  Go for it, then take your Metamucil afterwards.  (The phrase used to be take your Geritol, but they don't play those commercials anymore.)

The cool thing about a point of diminishing returns? It suggests there may also be a sweet spot. I hope I've found it.

Adding in higher-intensity stuff means changes in approaches, like running fewer miles and getting more rest, but my reading suggests that keeping the cardiac system stimulated may yield more benefits as we age than simple mitochondrial growth. (To a significant extent, perhaps, the benefits from those adaptations have already been dialed in?)

There's a practical reason for a change-up in strategy, too. I was slowing down so much doing the ultra-low-HR running over the past year that it was becoming clear that I was getting too slow to hit the cut-offs needed to take part in some of the longer trail races I've wanted to do. Back of the pack I can handle (especially as a fledgling geezer), but getting pulled for time and not being able to finish, even on a good day? Yeah, that's just not going to work for me.
Cut off time is my #1 consideration on a race.  That's a lot of the reason why doing JJ was so appealing.

On a completely different topic, how's your cyphering of meteorological terms?  The below was written by a local experienced meteorologist (non-on air) who wrote the following concerning all the cold air bottled up in the Artic in response to some uncertainty about whether it's going to be 80 or 55 for a high on Christmas.  All of the "we" or "us" references are for Houston, so back a few days up for your area.  And this is not a certainty, just an analysis of current data.

"Yes Sir, and I expect this flip flopping to continue as we are seeing changes in the teleconnection indices that are indicating the Polar Vortex that has been firmly anchored over the Artic is taking a beating with the various storm systems emerging out of the N Pacific into the Bering Sea. We likely will see at least two healthy storm systems between now and the week before New Years Day and possibly a flip to a colder regime as the Polar Vortex reconfigures into portions of Canada and a blocking regime with a +PNA/-EPO/-AO becomes established. Also the MJO transitioning into Phase 7 via the ECMWF scheme in the next week or so tends to favor a significant pattern change is lurking as we begin the month of January. There are a lot of -40/-50 and some -60 degree Celsius Temperatures building across Western Siberia/Eurasia and Alaska into the NW Territories of Western Canada. Something we will need to monitor as we head toward the end of the month. Meanwhile, enjoy this weather while we have it. Things could certainly look a lot different when we begin the New Year."
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Post  Mark B Thu Dec 17, 2015 8:08 pm

ounce wrote:
Mark B wrote:
ounce wrote:I'm glad you found a point of diminishing returns on HR.  I sorta came to that conclusion, as well.  I think it would be a good thing for someone who can't exert a higher HR, but still wants to run (and hope to hell they weren't a speed demon to begin with) or exercise at a comfortable HR.

Higher intensity stuff still can give you not-quite-a-spring-chicken-anymore people that needed validation that you still have something left of what you think you used to have.  Go for it, then take your Metamucil afterwards.  (The phrase used to be take your Geritol, but they don't play those commercials anymore.)

The cool thing about a point of diminishing returns? It suggests there may also be a sweet spot. I hope I've found it.

Adding in higher-intensity stuff means changes in approaches, like running fewer miles and getting more rest, but my reading suggests that keeping the cardiac system stimulated may yield more benefits as we age than simple mitochondrial growth. (To a significant extent, perhaps, the benefits from those adaptations have already been dialed in?)

There's a practical reason for a change-up in strategy, too. I was slowing down so much doing the ultra-low-HR running over the past year that it was becoming clear that I was getting too slow to hit the cut-offs needed to take part in some of the longer trail races I've wanted to do. Back of the pack I can handle (especially as a fledgling geezer), but getting pulled for time and not being able to finish, even on a good day? Yeah, that's just not going to work for me.
Cut off time is my #1 consideration on a race.  That's a lot of the reason why doing JJ was so appealing.

On a completely different topic, how's your cyphering of meteorological terms?  The below was written by a local experienced meteorologist (non-on air) who wrote the following concerning all the cold air bottled up in the Artic in response to some uncertainty about whether it's going to be 80 or 55 for a high on Christmas.  All of the "we" or "us" references are for Houston, so back a few days up for your area.  And this is not a certainty, just an analysis of current data.

"Yes Sir, and I expect this flip flopping to continue as we are seeing changes in the teleconnection indices that are indicating the Polar Vortex that has been firmly anchored over the Artic is taking a beating with the various storm systems emerging out of the N Pacific into the Bering Sea. We likely will see at least two healthy storm systems between now and the week before New Years Day and possibly a flip to a colder regime as the Polar Vortex reconfigures into portions of Canada and a blocking regime with a +PNA/-EPO/-AO becomes established. Also the MJO transitioning into Phase 7 via the ECMWF scheme in the next week or so tends to favor a significant pattern change is lurking as we begin the month of January. There are a lot of -40/-50 and some -60 degree Celsius Temperatures building across Western Siberia/Eurasia and Alaska into the NW Territories of Western Canada. Something we will need to monitor as we head toward the end of the month. Meanwhile, enjoy this weather while we have it. Things could certainly look a lot different when we begin the New Year."

Golly, that's a whole lot of weatherese ya got there. Alas, I lack the time at the moment to research terms like MJO, +PNA/-EPO/-AO and ECMWF... but it sounds like there's an expectation the current patterns may be ready for a shift in a couple of weeks. It'd have to be then, because there's no indication that our rain streak is set to end beyond the 10-day window. We had a paper saying there are now 18-day-old children who have never seen a day without rain. Very Happy

What usually causes a polar outbreak in the Midwest is a rapid gyration in the jet stream, sending it waaay north and then oscillating back south, pulling in the super cold air with it. That doesn't always mean we get cold air in Western Washington and Western Oregon, because the Cascade Range can block the continental air mass. Sometimes. It can also leak west and give us dandy snow, or less ideally, ice. Or, if the jet sends everything north, just cold and dry conditions.


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Post  ounce Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:18 pm

Mark B wrote:
ounce wrote:
Mark B wrote:
ounce wrote:I'm glad you found a point of diminishing returns on HR.  I sorta came to that conclusion, as well.  I think it would be a good thing for someone who can't exert a higher HR, but still wants to run (and hope to hell they weren't a speed demon to begin with) or exercise at a comfortable HR.

Higher intensity stuff still can give you not-quite-a-spring-chicken-anymore people that needed validation that you still have something left of what you think you used to have.  Go for it, then take your Metamucil afterwards.  (The phrase used to be take your Geritol, but they don't play those commercials anymore.)

The cool thing about a point of diminishing returns? It suggests there may also be a sweet spot. I hope I've found it.

Adding in higher-intensity stuff means changes in approaches, like running fewer miles and getting more rest, but my reading suggests that keeping the cardiac system stimulated may yield more benefits as we age than simple mitochondrial growth. (To a significant extent, perhaps, the benefits from those adaptations have already been dialed in?)

There's a practical reason for a change-up in strategy, too. I was slowing down so much doing the ultra-low-HR running over the past year that it was becoming clear that I was getting too slow to hit the cut-offs needed to take part in some of the longer trail races I've wanted to do. Back of the pack I can handle (especially as a fledgling geezer), but getting pulled for time and not being able to finish, even on a good day? Yeah, that's just not going to work for me.
Cut off time is my #1 consideration on a race.  That's a lot of the reason why doing JJ was so appealing.

On a completely different topic, how's your cyphering of meteorological terms?  The below was written by a local experienced meteorologist (non-on air) who wrote the following concerning all the cold air bottled up in the Artic in response to some uncertainty about whether it's going to be 80 or 55 for a high on Christmas.  All of the "we" or "us" references are for Houston, so back a few days up for your area.  And this is not a certainty, just an analysis of current data.

"Yes Sir, and I expect this flip flopping to continue as we are seeing changes in the teleconnection indices that are indicating the Polar Vortex that has been firmly anchored over the Artic is taking a beating with the various storm systems emerging out of the N Pacific into the Bering Sea. We likely will see at least two healthy storm systems between now and the week before New Years Day and possibly a flip to a colder regime as the Polar Vortex reconfigures into portions of Canada and a blocking regime with a +PNA/-EPO/-AO becomes established. Also the MJO transitioning into Phase 7 via the ECMWF scheme in the next week or so tends to favor a significant pattern change is lurking as we begin the month of January. There are a lot of -40/-50 and some -60 degree Celsius Temperatures building across Western Siberia/Eurasia and Alaska into the NW Territories of Western Canada. Something we will need to monitor as we head toward the end of the month. Meanwhile, enjoy this weather while we have it. Things could certainly look a lot different when we begin the New Year."

Golly, that's a whole lot of weatherese ya got there. Alas, I lack the time at the moment to research terms like MJO, +PNA/-EPO/-AO and ECMWF... but it sounds like there's an expectation the current patterns may be ready for a shift in a couple of weeks. It'd have to be then, because there's no indication that our rain streak is set to end beyond the 10-day window. We had a paper saying there are now 18-day-old children who have never seen a day without rain. Very Happy

What usually causes a polar outbreak in the Midwest is a rapid gyration in the jet stream, sending it waaay north and then oscillating back south, pulling in the super cold air with it. That doesn't always mean we get cold air in Western Washington and Western Oregon, because the Cascade Range can block the continental air mass. Sometimes. It can also leak west and give us dandy snow, or less ideally, ice. Or, if the jet sends everything north, just cold and dry conditions.

I know the ECMWF is the name of one of the weather models, like the GFS is one model.  Yes on the jet stream in the midwest.  If it hugs the eastern side of the Rockies, then the cold air will go all the way to Mexico, via Texas.  If the jet stream comes more like eastern Montana/west Dakotas, then the citrus trees in Florida will get the Breaking News in the morning.

So how often does a jet stream hug western Alaska, so y'all can get some love?

I'd like to know what makes the jet stream curve.
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Post  Mark B Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:17 am

ounce wrote:I know the ECMWF is the name of one of the weather models, like the GFS is one model.  Yes on the jet stream in the midwest.  If it hugs the eastern side of the Rockies, then the cold air will go all the way to Mexico, via Texas.  If the jet stream comes more like eastern Montana/west Dakotas, then the citrus trees in Florida will get the Breaking News in the morning.

So how often does a jet stream hug western Alaska, so y'all can get some love?

I'd like to know what makes the jet stream curve.

Ooo! I almost know that one. The jet stream is affected by heat accumulation and displacement by picking up warmer air at lower latitudes and dumping it at higher latitudes. That's why it tends to oscillate as it does. (It's also affected by the rotation of the earth, which just loves creating equilibrium.) That oscillation gets more erratic and intense, however, when there is less difference in air temperatures between lower and higher latitudes. So, as the Arctic warms, the jet starts to lose its "anchor" and goes all wacky. With climate change, that's expected to continue.

The jet can also be deflected by large high pressure ridges, like the one that forms over the West in the summer, which is why we don't get much rain from July into September, sometimes October.

So, the jet can soar up into the Gulf of Alaska and drive storms directly into us in the winter. But because it's coming off open water, and not a landmass or icepack, it's not as cold as it is in say, Minot, N.D. We can still get snow out of those systems, but it's not a sure thing at lower elevations.

When we get super cold (for us), the jet actually contorts itself in such a way as to flow from the NNE to the SSW, kind of bass-ackward. Or, and this is what happened a couple of years ago, a HUGE arctic outbreak (caused by displacement of the polar ARCTIC jet that usually just circles the globe at very high latitudes) pushes so deep into the continental United States that the bubble actually pushes over the Cascade Range enough to counteract the prevailing moderating marine influence from the Pacific Ocean.

When it's that cold, it's usually quite dry, so if we haven't got snow on the ground already, it isn't coming. Of course, when the system changes out, there's a chance for an overriding wet weather system to rain into a sub-freezing bubble of air hugging the ground (we get inversion layers) which creates a "silver thaw" - a pretty name for a very nasty ice storm.

The rule of thumb west of the Cascade Range is this: If it's cold enough to snow, it's too dry. If it's wet, it's too warm to snow. Actually getting snow on the ground at low elevations is kind of a fluke. Maybe once every couple of years on average.

Now, let's see what Biff has to say about today in sports. Biff?


Last edited by Mark B on Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:39 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Changed "polar" to "arctic" based on Ounce's map below.)

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Post  ounce Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:17 pm

Here's a picture of +PNA/-EPO/-AO that I got off of the world wide web:  http://uslongrangeforecast.blogspot.com/

And now, here's Biff.

THANKS, MAR.
HERE ARE THE SCORES FROM LAST NIGHT'S BASKETBALL GAMES, 101-82, 94-93, 120-117 IN TRIPLE OT, 98-72, AND 84-77 IN A GREAT DEFENSIVE MATCH UP.  THAT'S SPORTS!
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Post  Mark B Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:40 pm

ounce wrote:Here's a picture of +PNA/-EPO/-AO that I got off of the world wide web:  http://uslongrangeforecast.blogspot.com/

And now, here's Biff.

THANKS, MAR.
HERE ARE THE SCORES FROM LAST NIGHT'S BASKETBALL GAMES, 101-82, 94-93, 120-117 IN TRIPLE OT, 98-72, AND 84-77 IN A GREAT DEFENSIVE MATCH UP.  THAT'S SPORTS!

Oh, and one partial score.

42


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Post  Mark B Sun Dec 20, 2015 3:35 pm

Hm. It appears that I've hit my holiday season slump. I keep getting distracted from getting out the door (moderately wretched weather sure hasn't helped) and doing 1-2 runs a week. I hope to at least maintain that for the next two weeks, though the distractions mount when wife and kid are home from school.

Oh well, it's not like I'm training for anything, right?

Well, other than that 6-hour event in June with Alita...

Ulp.

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Post  ounce Mon Dec 21, 2015 11:38 pm

Mark B wrote:Hm. It appears that I've hit my holiday season slump. I keep getting distracted from getting out the door (moderately wretched weather sure hasn't helped) and doing 1-2 runs a week. I hope to at least maintain that for the next two weeks, though the distractions mount when wife and kid are home from school.

Oh well, it's not like I'm training for anything, right?

Well, other than that 6-hour event in June with Alita...

Ulp.
That's peanuts.  You're allowing your muscles to think you're not running anymore.  Then, BLAMMO!!!!, you're running again.  That'll teach those legs who's boss.
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