Father Time..............

Came accross this website, which I'm sure has been discovered before. Not sure its exactly the same as the WMA Age-grading Calulator, but it does present similar results in a different format. The researcher is actually an economist at Yale.

According to some other research you lose about 1 beat of Max HR per year which causes the slow but inevitable decline.

But here is my commentary:

Firstly, I think this table probably works well for those who ran marathons in their 20's and 30's and PR'd at that age. I'd be curious as to those of you who have been running for years if you've followed the trendline since reaching your PR.

Secondly, for people like me who started running late in life (me at age 52), I'm still improving and setting PRs -- but for how long? Essentially I have to get faster by 90 seconds per year to breakeven. At what point do the two lines intersect?

http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/runoth.htm

Based on this, in 13 years, my PR equivalent time will be a four hour marathon. Though I didn't run that in my first marathon, I would consider that coming full cycle for me.

It's amazing how long the tail goes on that curve, isn't it?

Unless you examine it a little too closely and draw conclusions like I did. Based on the times, in the year between my PR in the marathon and my time one year later, I aged 19 years!

I've heard about "dog years," but that's just wrong.

Sometimes you can surprise yourself as you age. Nobody expects an elite runner to set PR's at age 38, but that's exactly what US Olympian Magdalena Lewy-Boulet has done. Just this year at age 38 she set PR's at both 5,000 and 10,000 meters. And, she set her half and full marathon PR's in the previous two years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magdalena_Lewy-Boulet

Stan

ssilvert wrote:Sometimes you can surprise yourself as you age. Nobody expects an elite runner to set PR's at age 38, but that's exactly what US Olympian Magdalena Lewy-Boulet has done. Just this year at age 38 she set PR's at both 5,000 and 10,000 meters. And, she set her half and full marathon PR's in the previous two years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magdalena_Lewy-Boulet

Stan

So, If I can hit my goal in Chicago then I can trim 7 years off of my age? I like that chart.

I ran my first marathon at 50 (almost 51), and that first one is still my PR! Maybe this explains that problem, though I note that I've beaten this predictor in subsequent marathons, including twice last year (but I still did not PR) - next one I run (10/30) I will be 54, within a few days of 55, so we'll see how I do this time! But I presume you're right, this tool was not modeled for somebody who started so late...

I like the chart too, I can still break 4 hours at 80!!

Everyone's anecdotal tales here indicate that improvement is still possible even after the age of 35, but I would guess that's because we are more of the serious recreational type. Still learning and still improving. However, I would be willing to bet that overall this curve applies to the elites who tend to peak in their early 30s. Of course there are deviations to the norm, but I think this curve might hold some water.

If I recall correctly, didn't the book "Born to Run" make a statement along the lines of (not a direct quote): Distance runners continue to improve until their late 20s and then begin a gradual decline, but the curve down is more gradual than the curve up, so much so that a 63 year old has the same projected time as a 19 yr old". I remember something along those lines, and this curve would suggest much the same thing. I wish the curve went younger than 35 as I would like to see the improvement slope as well.

I note in the beginning the factors apply to most distances, include swimming and is only male, that women decline at a different rate. Interesting.

Michael Enright wrote:I ran my first marathon at 50 (almost 51), and that first one is still my PR! Maybe this explains that problem, though I note that I've beaten this predictor in subsequent marathons, including twice last year (but I still did not PR) - next one I run (10/30) I will be 54, within a few days of 55, so we'll see how I do this time! But I presume you're right, this tool was not modeled for somebody who started so late...

I turn 55 on Nov 8. We're close in age. Looking forward to the new age bracket and competing against those oldsters.