Fantasy Football Draft Tonight

Any last minutes gems of advice you want to throw out? I pick #8.

If it is a point per reception league, take Andre Johnson if he falls to #8.



As much as you might be tempted to, pass on taking any of the elite QBs. Stock up on WRs and RBs in the first 6 rounds. QBs like Stafford, Bradford, Ryan, Rothlesberger, Eli Manning and Cassell will be around real late.



Take Bralyon Edwards and Kenny Britt. Everyone has been moving them down their lists thinking the NFL would punish them for their offseason off-field troubles. Nope. The lockout has meant that the NFL is basically giving those guys a free pass so you can get them decently late and both will produce.



Take Deji Karim (Jac, RB) with your final pick. He's now the backup to Maurice Jones Drew. Rashard Jennings, the regular MJD backup, is out for the year so you will impress the league with your "on it" awareness.

On QBs, don't end up with a starting QB outside of this group:

Brady
Rodgers
Rivers
Brees
Manning (and actually, I wouldn't draft him until very very late)
Roethlisberger
Eli
Freeman
Vick
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco


So, if you are in a 10 team league, you should be golden. If you are in a 12+ team league, make sure you get one of that group.

Best case scenario, you have Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles as your keepers. Bwahahahahahahahaha.

And at #8, you will likely have to take a RB.

Grab Kendricks, TE from the Rams late. He's gonna score a bunch of TDs this year, especially if Hohomanwanui (or whatever it is) is healthy.

Chris M wrote:If it is a point per reception league, take Andre Johnson if he falls to #8.

I agree...and if you get him try to take Schaub if he falls to you a couple of rounds later. That way you get double points...

Assuming you have a playoff system, try to avoid relying on QBs who will be playing december games outdoors in cold weather. For example: Some people have ridden Tom Brady to regular season glory only to have that come crashing down in the playoffs when it is too cold for him to feel his hands. Then, the next season, those same people have traded Tom Brady for Joe Flacco and future draft picks while riding Jamaal and CJ and a hodgepodge of lousy WRs to yet another FF title.

I'm just sayin.

For example, I love Aaron Rodgers, but he finishes Lambeau, Arrowhead, Lambeau, Lambeau. That's tough for any qb. That's fine if Rodgers drops to you in round 3. Not so much if your entire teams relies on him b/c you picked him round 1.

Our league is kind of conducive to waiting on a QB (4 pts for a passing TD). I like the list of 11 QBs put together earlier, and even though it's a 12 team league, I feel pretty safe I can fill out my roster with 4 quality RB/WR and a top tier TE before having to take a QB.

I have a feeling the choice is going to come down to Andre Johnson or MJD and I'm thinking Andre Johnson. There seems to be a lot of high upside RBs that can be had in rounds 3 & 4 this year. If I can find one that pans out, I'll be good.

GregC wrote:Our league is kind of conducive to waiting on a QB (4 pts for a passing TD). I like the list of 11 QBs put together earlier, and even though it's a 12 team league, I feel pretty safe I can fill out my roster with 4 quality RB/WR and a top tier TE before having to take a QB.

I have a feeling the choice is going to come down to Andre Johnson or MJD and I'm thinking Andre Johnson. There seems to be a lot of high upside RBs that can be had in rounds 3 & 4 this year. If I can find one that pans out, I'll be good.

I would stay away from MJD...I think that his production is going to be down this year, because he will not be able to keep the injury bug away.

If Darren McFadden somehow falls to you at #8, that would be a great pick, as well...

I've been advocating Michael Vick as the #1 overall choice for a month now. He had the second most points last year in 11 games. The "injury risk" argument is bullshit. He's no more of an injury risk that any of the other QBs, who are all 1 hit away from a torn ACL (Brady, Rivers) or scrambled egg brain (Rodgers, Ben).

I'm way down on RBs this year. After the top 5 (AP, CJ2k, Charles, Rice and Arian), I don't see much difference between the next dozen or so. Is MJD really any safer than Forte or Run-DMC or Peyton Hillis? I say no.

So my strategy is to load up on QB and WR. I'd take Vick 8, best available WR at 13, then two RBS in rounds 3 and 4. And just so you know I mean it, I've taken Vick in all 3 of my leagues at #2, #3 and #8. Whooo let dem dooooogs out!!! Woof woof woof woof!!!

(just tying it into the worst songs of the 90's thread)

healdgator wrote:On QBs, don't end up with a starting QB outside of this group:

Brady
Rodgers
Rivers
Brees
Manning (and actually, I wouldn't draft him until very very late)
Roethlisberger
Eli
Freeman
Vick
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco


So, if you are in a 10 team league, you should be golden. If you are in a 12+ team league, make sure you get one of that group.

Just for fun, and taking out Vick and Arian:

The difference between the #2 and #12 QB last year was - 74 points
The difference between the #2 and #12 RB last year was - 38 points

In other words, the drop off from the top tier of QB to the second tier is more damaging that RBs.

Vick is way more of an injury risk because his o-line is awful. That, and waiting for those big play guys to get deep takes longer and increases the risk of getting killed. I don't think he's anywhere near the #1 overall pick.

Dave-O wrote:

Just for fun, and taking out Vick and Arian:

The difference between the #2 and #12 QB last year was - 74 points
The difference between the #2 and #12 RB last year was - 38 points

In other words, the drop off from the top tier of QB to the second tier is more damaging that RBs.

But you need at least 2 RBs whereas you only need 1 QB. You can wait and get a decent QB without hurting your team too much. If you wait on RBs, it could be a long season.

As for me, I waited too long on a QB and wound up with Cutler.

Dave-O wrote:

healdgator wrote:On QBs, don't end up with a starting QB outside of this group:

Brady
Rodgers
Rivers
Brees
Manning (and actually, I wouldn't draft him until very very late)
Roethlisberger
Eli
Freeman
Vick
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco


So, if you are in a 10 team league, you should be golden. If you are in a 12+ team league, make sure you get one of that group.

Just for fun, and taking out Vick and Arian:

The difference between the #2 and #12 QB last year was - 74 points
The difference between the #2 and #12 RB last year was - 38 points

In other words, the drop off from the top tier of QB to the second tier is more damaging that RBs.

you need 2 RBs, not 2 QBs.

GregC wrote:

Dave-O wrote:

Just for fun, and taking out Vick and Arian:

The difference between the #2 and #12 QB last year was - 74 points
The difference between the #2 and #12 RB last year was - 38 points

In other words, the drop off from the top tier of QB to the second tier is more damaging that RBs.

But you need at least 2 RBs whereas you only need 1 QB. You can wait and get a decent QB without hurting your team too much. If you wait on RBs, it could be a long season.

As for me, I waited too long on a QB and wound up with Cutler.

Ouch. He's my backup, and I'm not happy about it. I ended up with Freeman. I would have been pleased with that, but I already have Mike Williams at WR. I was one pick away from getting Matt Ryan. they are comparable, but I'm starting two Chefs and two Bucs. Not ideal.

GregC wrote:
But you need at least 2 RBs whereas you only need 1 QB. You can wait and get a decent QB without hurting your team too much. If you wait on RBs, it could be a long season.

As for me, I waited too long on a QB and wound up with Cutler.

Huh? You do hurt your team by waiting too long for a QB, by 50-75 points. You may see the number of point Cutler or Freeman have and think they're still scoring a lot. And they are. But they're not scoring a lot compared to the top QBs. So relative to your weekly opponent you're falling way behind.

You get hurt less than by drafting two second or third tier running backs because the difference between #5 and #15 and #25 isn't as drastic. Not to mention there are always major RB pick ups on the waiver wire. Last year you could have swiped LaGarrette Blount and Fred Jackson and been just fine.

The fallacy that RB is top heavy is outdated. But I'm all for perpetuating that myth...while I continue to win leagues.

Dave-O wrote:

GregC wrote:
But you need at least 2 RBs whereas you only need 1 QB. You can wait and get a decent QB without hurting your team too much. If you wait on RBs, it could be a long season.

As for me, I waited too long on a QB and wound up with Cutler.

Huh? You do hurt your team by waiting too long for a QB, by 50-75 points. You may see the number of point Cutler or Freeman have and think they're still scoring a lot. And they are. But they're not scoring a lot compared to the top QBs. So relative to your weekly opponent you're falling way behind.

You get hurt less than by drafting two second or third tier running backs because the difference between #5 and #15 and #25 isn't as drastic. Not to mention there are always major RB pick ups on the waiver wire. Last year you could have swiped LaGarrette Blount and Fred Jackson and been just fine.

The fallacy that RB is top heavy is outdated. But I'm all for perpetuating that myth...while I continue to win leagues.

I am happy to have people continue to blow top picks on QBs while I ride CJ and JC to yet another title, while the stiffs running Fred Jackson and Shonn Greene out there with Phillip Rivers continue to wonder why I win our league every year.

You're overstating it Dave. Plus, the fact is in most leagues, you're starting 2 RB and can double that point differential you put up there. And I'd bet it falls off the table even more between 12 to 22 than it does from 2 to 12. I'd also bet the fall off from 12 to 22 isn't nearly as much in QBs as in RBs. I think you're better off getting the RB early in comparison to a QB. Honestly, I've focused more on WR in recent years because they're getting to be the most valuable guys in leagues where you get a point for a catch.

In reality, you almost have to catch lightning in a bottle to win by getting a late round guy who totally outperforms his draft slot. My best years were ones where I got Kurt Warner late or took a chance on a guy who hadn't broken out yet like the year I got Steven Jackson at the back end of the 1st round.

The average draft position for Vick is #9. The average draft position for Cutler is #110.



The average draft position for someone you could take instead of Vick like Rashard Mendenhall is #10.



The RBs available down at average draft position #110 are guys like Michael Bush and LDT.



Vick is projected to score 360-380 points in 2011 and Bush/LDT are projected to score 80-100 points



Cutler is projected to score 260-270 and Rashard Mendehall 220-235



Cutler/Mendehall 480-505 > Vick and (Bush or LDT) 440-480



Now that is just an example and I'm sure we could find RB/QB pairings which make the case better for my advice (wait on QBs) or for Dave's case (take Vick early) but my view is that when you take anything but a WR/RB in the first 4 rounds, you are making a conscious choice to have to start someone at RB or WR that you draft late or relying on finding gold on the waiver wire. My approach has been to draft 2 QBs for a 1 QB league late and then play the matchups. I want STARTING RBs filling all of my RB slots and if the cost of doing that is me having to figure out which one of Stafford/Bradford/Cassell/Cutler should be started in a given week, I'm OK with that. You'll never see one of my teams drafting a guy like Danny Woodhead or James Stewart and just plugging them into the starting lineup hoping they score enough points to warrant being a starter.

Chris M wrote:The average draft position for Vick is #9. The average draft position for Cutler is #110.

The average draft position for someone you could take instead of Vick like Rashard Mendenhall is #10.

The RBs available down at average draft position #110 are guys like Michael Bush and LDT.

Vick is projected to score 360-380 points in 2011 and Bush/LDT are projected to score 80-100 points

Cutler is projected to score 260-270 and Rashard Mendehall 220-235

Cutler/Mendehall 480-505 > Vick and (Bush or LDT) 440-480

I think Chris has it.

Anyway at #8 Foster was still available, so I took a chance (Vick got taken #3). Then coming back in round 2, MJD was still there so I took another chance. Two injury risks with the potential to be top 5 backs. That's where my team will decided. Not by who is playing QB.

healdgator wrote:
I am happy to have people continue to blow top picks on QBs while I ride CJ and JC to yet another title, while the stiffs running Fred Jackson and Shonn Greene out there with Phillip Rivers continue to wonder why I win our league every year.

Yes, because comparing a keeper league where you have CJ and Charles is clearly analogous to a re-draft league.

Chris M wrote:The average draft position for Vick is #9. The average draft position for Cutler is #110.



The average draft position for someone you could take instead of Vick like Rashard Mendenhall is #10.



The RBs available down at average draft position #110 are guys like Michael Bush and LDT.



Vick is projected to score 360-380 points in 2011 and Bush/LDT are projected to score 80-100 points



Cutler is projected to score 260-270 and Rashard Mendehall 220-235



Cutler/Mendehall 480-505 > Vick and (Bush or LDT) 440-480



Now that is just an example and I'm sure we could find RB/QB pairings which make the case better for my advice (wait on QBs) or for Dave's case (take Vick early) but my view is that when you take anything but a WR/RB in the first 4 rounds, you are making a conscious choice to have to start someone at RB or WR that you draft late or relying on finding gold on the waiver wire. My approach has been to draft 2 QBs for a 1 QB league late and then play the matchups. I want STARTING RBs filling all of my RB slots and if the cost of doing that is me having to figure out which one of Stafford/Bradford/Cassell/Cutler should be started in a given week, I'm OK with that. You'll never see one of my teams drafting a guy like Danny Woodhead or James Stewart and just plugging them into the starting lineup hoping they score enough points to warrant being a starter.

You're entire anlogy is void because I'm not advocating waiting until round 10 for the LDT/Bush types. I'm saying that you draft your 2 RBs in round 2-3-4 because the difference in the top 20 or isnt that drastic. Your RB is still filled by pick 48 at the worst, so guys like Forte, DeAngelo, Bradshaw, Moreono, Blount, etc.

Again, my entire argument is that the points you "lose" between Mendenhall and Forte/DeAngelo is less than the points you lose between Vick/Rodgers and Cutler/Eli.

All that said, I would have taken Arian #8 if Vick and Rodgers were gone as well.

Arian is nursing a hamstring, so he's not a season long sure thing. Andre is doing fine. Schaub isn't hurt and played all of last year.



Texans play 1 game outside in the cold after week 7 and that's week 14 in Cincy. Other games are either inside or in the South.