Why is Rupp running in the trials?

fostever wrote:Because he can. He may very well have a chance, he's at the top of his game right now, why not?

The reason it doesn't make sense to me is because debut marathons are HUGE in the biz. I.e., when you can get top perks ($$). So it seems strange to do so at a race that doesn't pay you to run...

And it doesn't seem like Ritz would need a pacer b/c it's not a race for time.

I have my own guesses...but I guess we will all just wait and see what actually happens! If I was a betting girl, I'd bet against it. But Alberto has done stranger things...

Oh, I just cannot wait to watch these races...!

Sara Jane wrote:

fostever wrote:Because he can. He may very well have a chance, he's at the top of his game right now, why not?

The reason it doesn't make sense to me is because debut marathons are HUGE in the biz. I.e., when you can get top perks ($$). So it seems strange to do so at a race that doesn't pay you to run...

And it doesn't seem like Ritz would need a pacer b/c it's not a race for time.

I have my own guesses...but I guess we will all just wait and see what actually happens! If I was a betting girl, I'd bet against it. But Alberto has done stranger things...

Oh, I just cannot wait to watch these races...!

It's one more chance to make the Olympics and be on the biggest possible stage. It's not always about $$. I'm sure he's not going to have to worry too much about that. You're right, time will tell if he even runs and why he will or won't. We are all speculating until we hear it from the horse's (stud's) mouth.

fostever wrote:

Sara Jane wrote:

fostever wrote:Because he can. He may very well have a chance, he's at the top of his game right now, why not?

The reason it doesn't make sense to me is because debut marathons are HUGE in the biz. I.e., when you can get top perks ($$). So it seems strange to do so at a race that doesn't pay you to run...

And it doesn't seem like Ritz would need a pacer b/c it's not a race for time.

I have my own guesses...but I guess we will all just wait and see what actually happens! If I was a betting girl, I'd bet against it. But Alberto has done stranger things...

Oh, I just cannot wait to watch these races...!

It's one more chance to make the Olympics and be on the biggest possible stage. It's not always about $$. I'm sure he's not going to have to worry too much about that. You're right, time will tell if he even runs and why he will or won't. We are all speculating until we hear it from the horse's (stud's) mouth.

I would still just think the 5K and 10K would be his attempt...though honestly, I have no idea what the schedule is in London. It seems he would have a better chance at actually medalling in one of those. And since he WILL no doubt already have a ticket to the show, it would seem like setting yourself up for that hardware is the whole point of the Olympics.

And it's gotta be about $$ to some extent. They are always one freak injury away being sent to the bench, a contract reduction, etc.

My guess is that Nike would like him to run the marathon at the Olympics. He may have a better shot at a medal by going long. The last American 10000 meter record holder who ran the Olympic Marathon came home from Athens with a silver.

Stan

ssilvert wrote:My guess is that Nike would like him to run the marathon at the Olympics. He may have a better shot at a medal by going long. The last American 10000 meter record holder who ran the Olympic Marathon came home from Athens with a silver.

Stan

Really? With Hall not even close to all those Kenyans (Boston aside, not sure how to weigh that race in, I guess he's sorta close)...and the Kenyans so strong they have to leave one of the best in the world off the team?

Sara Jane wrote:

ssilvert wrote:My guess is that Nike would like him to run the marathon at the Olympics. He may have a better shot at a medal by going long. The last American 10000 meter record holder who ran the Olympic Marathon came home from Athens with a silver.

Stan

Really? With Hall not even close to all those Kenyans (Boston aside, not sure how to weigh that race in, I guess he's sorta close)...and the Kenyans so strong they have to leave one of the best in the world off the team?

I wouldn't sell Rupp (or Hall) that short. I think both are legit medal contenders in the marathon in London, in part because Keyna can only send 3. But there are not many people in the world who can bust out sub 60 half marathons and Hall (done it) and Rupp (easily could) are two of them. Watch that Boston 2011 race again on Youtube. Hall didn't just hang with the leaders....he was dictating the pace and pushing the crazy fast splits almost the whole time. Mutai specifically brought that up post-race. He got beat by three absolute studs (Mutai, Mosop and Gebre) who are probably better bets for London medals than any US guy but I'll bet Hall will be in the mix among the leaders in London. And both Ritz and Rupp COULD be faster than Hall. "Could" is a lot different than "will be" but those two guys have crazy speed proven at other distances that Hall does not. Any one of those 3 guys could run a 2:08 or maybe even better in London and that might be enough for a medal. Maybe. Still, I have to think there's a better shot there at 26.2 than Rupp getting a medal in 5K (no chance) or 10K (he's in the mix but I still like the marathon better). Plus I think he could do the 10K and marathon double and take two shots at medalling because of how the London schedule sets up.

I agree with Chris and this summer's race could be quite interesting. The only question would be regarding the "fragility" or Ritz and Rupp and even Hall to a degree. Remember that the Kenyans had each other in Boston - Hall had himself as the lone American. Also remember how close Meb stayed to the leaders in NY. The Olympic race will be tactical, it always is, so it is hard to say that our runners are out of it with the speed Hall has shown in the marathon and the potential of the other two.

fostever wrote:Because he can. He may very well have a chance, he's at the top of his game right now, why not?

Because he could probably get 250k from New York, Boston or Chicago to save his marathon debut for one of those majors.

Well has anyone checked the local allergen report?

Sara Jane wrote:Well has anyone checked the local allergen report?

I just don't see how Rupp could have a realistic shot at a medal in his second (or third if he was really aggressive) marathon in London next year. Of the top 9 marathoners (Mutais, Makau, Kirui, Kipsang, Geb, Gebre, Kebede, Hall) today 7/9 didn't run their PR until having run at least four or more previous marathons. Trust me, I looked it up. The marathon takes time to learn - we all know.

Rupp ran the 4th or 5th fastest 10,000m in 2011 I believe.

He should stick to the 10k for at least one more year. He's still young enough for two more Olympic cycles at the marathon in 2016 and 2020.

Chris M wrote:

I wouldn't sell Rupp (or Hall) that short. I think both are legit medal contenders in the marathon in London, in part because Keyna can only send 3. But there are not many people in the world who can bust out sub 60 half marathons and Hall (done it) and Rupp (easily could) are two of them.

Unfortunately Chris there are now a ton of East Africans who have run sub 60. But yes Kenya can only send 3, and Ethiopia 3 so that helps. The problem for Rupp and Ritz are that those 6 guys are battle-tested marathoners, our American boys are not.

Rupp is a proven 10k runner. He has a better chance of third in the 10k (Bekele and Farah are as much of a lock there as possible IF healthy) compared to hoping at least 5-7 guys falter (east Africans plus Hall).

Based on the numbers he's gotta take one more crack at the 10k I believe and then move up if necessary.

And to add to Ben's post, we all must remember that Ritz is quite fragile, but he did have a good showing in Beijing.

Ben Z wrote:I just don't see how Rupp could have a realistic shot at a medal in his second (or third if he was really aggressive) marathon in London next year. Of the top 9 marathoners (Mutais, Makau, Kirui, Kipsang, Geb, Gebre, Kebede, Hall) today 7/9 didn't run their PR until having run at least four or more previous marathons. Trust me, I looked it up. The marathon takes time to learn - we all know.

Yes, the marathon takes time to learn, except when it doesn't. We all know about how Grete Waitz shattered the world record in her first marathon.

But back to my point, in 2004 Meb came into the marathon trials as the US 10,000 meter record holder - just like Rupp is doing. True, Rupp has never run a marathon before. But Meb had only run one single marathon before the trials. He went on to win a silver medal.

I'm not saying that Rupp has more than an outside shot to medal at ANY distance. But there is some precedence that says he may have a better shot going long. In the marathon, 10K speed means a lot more than experience. It's not coincidence that most of the best marathoners were stars at 10,000 on the track.

Coaching can make up for lack of experience. Nothing makes up for lack of speed. I'd rather have Rupp's speed than Ritz's experience.

Stan

ssilvert wrote:

Coaching can make up for lack of experience. Nothing makes up for lack of speed. I'd rather have Rupp's speed than Ritz's experience.

Stan

I would rather have either's speed/edurance than their experience.

ssilvert wrote:

Yes, the marathon takes time to learn, except when it doesn't. We all know about how Grete Waitz shattered the world record in her first marathon.

But back to my point, in 2004 Meb came into the marathon trials as the US 10,000 meter record holder - just like Rupp is doing. True, Rupp has never run a marathon before. But Meb had only run one single marathon before the trials. He went on to win a silver medal.

I'm not saying that Rupp has more than an outside shot to medal at ANY distance. But there is some precedence that says he may have a better shot going long. In the marathon, 10K speed means a lot more than experience. It's not coincidence that most of the best marathoners were stars at 10,000 on the track.

Coaching can make up for lack of experience. Nothing makes up for lack of speed. I'd rather have Rupp's speed than Ritz's experience.

Stan

Fair points Stan. And there are certainly examples where people did very well in their first or second marathons. But my point is that for the vast majority of the best marathoners today it did not happen in a single year. It took some time.

Plus, say what you want about Alberto but he is unproven as a marathon coach. He pretty much has only coached Kara and Ritz at the distance (I believe?) and only Kara can say she did OK I believe (though I think he probably got the most out of her to be honest).

He's out!

http://www.oregonlive.com/trackandfield/index.ssf/2012/01/galen_rupp_says_he_will_withdr.html

Good call Alberto.

Ben Z wrote:He's out!

http://www.oregonlive.com/trackandfield/index.ssf/2012/01/galen_rupp_says_he_will_withdr.html

Good call Alberto.

Alberto seems to have learned a great deal since he was a competitor himself.

Ben Z wrote:

Rupp is a proven 10k runner. He has a better chance of third in the 10k (Bekele and Farah are as much of a lock there as possible IF healthy) compared to hoping at least 5-7 guys falter (east Africans plus Hall).

Based on the numbers he's gotta take one more crack at the 10k I believe and then move up if necessary.

Its a moot point now, but there's no reason he couldn't have doubled with his focus on the 10k. 10k is 10 days before the marathon.

Do I think he had a great shot to beat Kenya's loaded team? Probably not. But I think he had a better shot than guys like Arcianaga, Gotcher, Hartmann, etc.