Thoughts on Hall running Chicago

mul21 wrote:

Joel H wrote:I still have to think it is a huge risk to be running 3 marathons in less than 1 calendar year. Didn't Kara Goucher try this a couple of years ago and blew up in her 3rd race? I realize Kara is new to the marathon but 3 "all out" marathons in one calendar year seems to be stretching things a bit too me. I realize Hall is a step above everyone right now in the USA based on current times but who is to say one of those guys in the 2:09-11 crowd couldn't run a 2:06-2:08 by the time the trials roll around? Arciniaga ran his 2:11 in Houston this past year and Houston's weather was 60 degrees with 90% humidity (I was there I should know)...definitely not ideal conditions to run a fast marathon. I bet if the conditions were more favorable he could have run 2:08-2:09. Who is to say he couldn't go lower with another year under his belt? Hall at 90% may be looking at something in that range as well.

I still think Hall will make the team but it may be a bit more difficult by adding in Chicago as a prep race.

That's all well and good, but are there 3 guys who can do that? We send 3, as Jim mentioned, so it would take some amazing performances from several other guys combined with a bad day from Hall for him to not make the team.

Meb and Abdi, though older, are capable of a 2:08.

Ritzenhein is the ultimate wild card. His PR's of 1:00:00 and 2:10:00 in the Olympic heat show 2:06 capabilities.

Arcianaga and Gotcher are in positon to take the leap to 2:09.

mul21 wrote:

Joel H wrote:I still have to think it is a huge risk to be running 3 marathons in less than 1 calendar year. Didn't Kara Goucher try this a couple of years ago and blew up in her 3rd race? I realize Kara is new to the marathon but 3 "all out" marathons in one calendar year seems to be stretching things a bit too me. I realize Hall is a step above everyone right now in the USA based on current times but who is to say one of those guys in the 2:09-11 crowd couldn't run a 2:06-2:08 by the time the trials roll around? Arciniaga ran his 2:11 in Houston this past year and Houston's weather was 60 degrees with 90% humidity (I was there I should know)...definitely not ideal conditions to run a fast marathon. I bet if the conditions were more favorable he could have run 2:08-2:09. Who is to say he couldn't go lower with another year under his belt? Hall at 90% may be looking at something in that range as well.

I still think Hall will make the team but it may be a bit more difficult by adding in Chicago as a prep race.

That's all well and good, but are there 3 guys who can do that? We send 3, as Jim mentioned, so it would take some amazing performances from several other guys combined with a bad day from Hall for him to not make the team.

Jim - Like I said, I still think Hall will make the team but one bad day could ruin it for him. We both know the Marathon is a race that has to be respected and by trying to cram in 3 races in 1 year it may be too much for one person's body. I don't know what will happen but by running Chicago it does make it a bit tougher to make the top 3, you have to agree with that. I believe he will still have to be on his A game to make the Top 3. In the end, I still think he will make the team...he may just not win it like he should (or did during the last Trials).

Dave-O wrote:

mul21 wrote:

Joel H wrote:I still have to think it is a huge risk to be running 3 marathons in less than 1 calendar year. Didn't Kara Goucher try this a couple of years ago and blew up in her 3rd race? I realize Kara is new to the marathon but 3 "all out" marathons in one calendar year seems to be stretching things a bit too me. I realize Hall is a step above everyone right now in the USA based on current times but who is to say one of those guys in the 2:09-11 crowd couldn't run a 2:06-2:08 by the time the trials roll around? Arciniaga ran his 2:11 in Houston this past year and Houston's weather was 60 degrees with 90% humidity (I was there I should know)...definitely not ideal conditions to run a fast marathon. I bet if the conditions were more favorable he could have run 2:08-2:09. Who is to say he couldn't go lower with another year under his belt? Hall at 90% may be looking at something in that range as well.

I still think Hall will make the team but it may be a bit more difficult by adding in Chicago as a prep race.

That's all well and good, but are there 3 guys who can do that? We send 3, as Jim mentioned, so it would take some amazing performances from several other guys combined with a bad day from Hall for him to not make the team.

Meb and Abdi, though older, are capable of a 2:08.

Ritzenhein is the ultimate wild card. His PR's of 1:00:00 and 2:10:00 in the Olympic heat show 2:06 capabilities.

Arcianaga and Gotcher are in positon to take the leap to 2:09.

I agree, any of these guys could step up and make the Top 3.

Dave-O wrote:

Meb and Abdi, though older, are capable of a 2:08.

Ritzenhein is the ultimate wild card. His PR's of 1:00:00 and 2:10:00 in the Olympic heat show 2:06 capabilities.

Arcianaga and Gotcher are in positon to take the leap to 2:09.

There are always wildcards in the marathon. Ritz has been a bit of a mystery lately, but has as much potential as anyone. He hasn't raced recently though (was his last marathon the 2:10 he ran in London?), but the big key for him will be making it to the starting line healthy. If he's not, I wonder if he'll try his luck with the 10K or 5K on the track.

Meb's a great competitor/racer, and I wouldn't count him out at any cost, even if he's long in the tooth.

I think it's a risk to attempt Chicago, but Hall feels it's worth it to gain experience going toe to toe with the world's best and developing tactics that could help him earn a place on the podium in London. I don't necessarily agree with it, but I wasn't a big fan of him training without a human coach to guide him and that seemed to work out okay in Boston.

What I think will be interesting is how he approaches the OT tactics. Will he sit and try to break the field with a huge surge after halfway like last time? Will he take it out hard? While guys like Arcianaga and Gotcher will no doubt be improved and confident on race day, will they be willing to risk running a 1:02-1:03 first half if that's what Hall does? I could see the field letting him go and fighting for spots 2 and 3 rather than going with him and risking a blow up that would cost them a trip to the Olympics. In any case, it makes it fun to speculate and debate the possibilities.

Matt W wrote:but I wasn't a big fan of him training without a human coach to guide him

You have a way with words...

Matt W wrote:

Dave-O wrote:

Meb and Abdi, though older, are capable of a 2:08.

Ritzenhein is the ultimate wild card. His PR's of 1:00:00 and 2:10:00 in the Olympic heat show 2:06 capabilities.

Arcianaga and Gotcher are in positon to take the leap to 2:09.

There are always wildcards in the marathon. Ritz has been a bit of a mystery lately, but has as much potential as anyone. He hasn't raced recently though (was his last marathon the 2:10 he ran in London?), but the big key for him will be making it to the starting line healthy. If he's not, I wonder if he'll try his luck with the 10K or 5K on the track.

Meb's a great competitor/racer, and I wouldn't count him out at any cost, even if he's long in the tooth.

I think it's a risk to attempt Chicago, but Hall feels it's worth it to gain experience going toe to toe with the world's best and developing tactics that could help him earn a place on the podium in London. I don't necessarily agree with it, but I wasn't a big fan of him training without a human coach to guide him and that seemed to work out okay in Boston.

What I think will be interesting is how he approaches the OT tactics. Will he sit and try to break the field with a huge surge after halfway like last time? Will he take it out hard? While guys like Arcianaga and Gotcher will no doubt be improved and confident on race day, will they be willing to risk running a 1:02-1:03 first half if that's what Hall does? I could see the field letting him go and fighting for spots 2 and 3 rather than going with him and risking a blow up that would cost them a trip to the Olympics. In any case, it makes it fun to speculate and debate the possibilities.

I think he takes it out hard. It's in his nature to go out in 1:02-1:03. The field will be too far back, unless they want to risk everything.

GregC wrote:

Matt W wrote:but I wasn't a big fan of him training without a human coach to guide him

You have a way with words...

To be fair, I do have a lot of respect for Hall's faith and the way he unabashedly lives what he believes. I was (am still am to some degree) a bit skeptical about his breaking away from a training group to go it alone. I can understand wanting to change things up since the direction of his running career wasn't trending upwards, but it would seem to make the most sense to have a coach or group to work with. I know I bounce ideas off of other teachers and my principal. Even pastors do the same thing. Heck, Moses got advice from people.

That being said, I am still a fan of Hall's and wish him the best of luck in his pursuit of fast times and Olympic medals. While his plan might not be what we would do, God does work in mysterious ways, so I hope it ends with great marathoning for Hall.

Matt W wrote:

GregC wrote:

Matt W wrote:but I wasn't a big fan of him training without a human coach to guide him

You have a way with words...

To be fair, I do have a lot of respect for Hall's faith and the way he unabashedly lives what he believes. I was (am still am to some degree) a bit skeptical about his breaking away from a training group to go it alone. I can understand wanting to change things up since the direction of his running career wasn't trending upwards, but it would seem to make the most sense to have a coach or group to work with. I know I bounce ideas off of other teachers and my principal. Even pastors do the same thing. Heck, Moses got advice from people.

That being said, I am still a fan of Hall's and wish him the best of luck in his pursuit of fast times and Olympic medals. While his plan might not be what we would do, God does work in mysterious ways, so I hope it ends with great marathoning for Hall.

If I'm not mistaken Hall has been getting advice from Jack Daniels. So it's not like he is completely going at it alone.

"The other changes are potentially more significant. He and his wife, Sara, have moved from Mammoth Lakes, Calif., to dual locations, Flagstaff, Ariz., and Palo Alto, Calif. In Flagstaff, they have a landlord who's become an unofficial coach–the legendary Jack Daniels, Ph.D., now living and coaching at Brevard College in North Carolina. Hall says he's not exactly self-coached but neither is he coached by Daniels or his father, Mickey, another principal sounding board. Rather, he's evaluating advice from a number of trusted sources."

Schuey wrote:

Matt W wrote:

GregC wrote:

Matt W wrote:but I wasn't a big fan of him training without a human coach to guide him

You have a way with words...

To be fair, I do have a lot of respect for Hall's faith and the way he unabashedly lives what he believes. I was (am still am to some degree) a bit skeptical about his breaking away from a training group to go it alone. I can understand wanting to change things up since the direction of his running career wasn't trending upwards, but it would seem to make the most sense to have a coach or group to work with. I know I bounce ideas off of other teachers and my principal. Even pastors do the same thing. Heck, Moses got advice from people.

That being said, I am still a fan of Hall's and wish him the best of luck in his pursuit of fast times and Olympic medals. While his plan might not be what we would do, God does work in mysterious ways, so I hope it ends with great marathoning for Hall.

If I'm not mistaken Hall has been getting advice from Jack Daniels. So it's not like he is completely going at it alone.

"The other changes are potentially more significant. He and his wife, Sara, have moved from Mammoth Lakes, Calif., to dual locations, Flagstaff, Ariz., and Palo Alto, Calif. In Flagstaff, they have a landlord who's become an unofficial coach–the legendary Jack Daniels, Ph.D., now living and coaching at Brevard College in North Carolina. Hall says he's not exactly self-coached but neither is he coached by Daniels or his father, Mickey, another principal sounding board. Rather, he's evaluating advice from a number of trusted sources."

That's understood. But the argument is around Hall's head coach, not assistant coaches.