HR Explained

So, assuming all other things equal, if my training HR is higher than a prior cycle, my fitness is no better or not as good?

How much I can trust the data?

Here are more backgrounds:

2010, 2011 I had my best training years ending with a 1:21:06 Half PR. 2012 I was wasted, but pulled a 3:03 marathon in January 2013. 

Then I had ok trainings in the first 5 months, but was not able to up my training the level I wanted due to soccer injury. I believe, however, my fitness, if not endurance, had improved.

From June, I did good, all slow runs. 299,275,275,269 miles from June to Sept, and 221 so far only because I started tapering this week.

Now I feel very good, but the data indicates not good enough.

Can I beat the odds to PR in the half? I would really like that. 

I am pretty I can beat my 2:58:35 marathon PR December 8th though.

I think you're not in a good place, based on your description.  But who am I to judge when your last full marathon time is half of mine?

But you could surprise me and PR your half and then Dallas.  Either way, best of luck.

It looks to me like you may have sacrificed some of your half marathon speed in favor of endurance based on your mileage.  I would think this would adversely affect races up to 10 miles and maybe the half, but possibly give you an advantage over previous races in the last 10K of the marathon by being able to hang onto goal MP a bit better.

There's really not enough info here to give you a good answer though.  What types of runs are you talking about the HR being higher on?  Have you done the same type of training as before?  More or less fast running?

Only the race will show where you are at this point, Jerry. So don't worry about the HR data now.

If you want to go all data-geek at some point, the best strategy is to run a time trial (say, 5 miles) targeting a specific aerobic heart rate the whole time. Keep track of how long it takes to cover each mile at that same heart rate (and you'll slow down a bit each mile), and note the environmental conditions, and you'll get a better sense of how you're doing. Just having a higher average HR doesn't really mean anything unless you also track your pace - and determine whether you're getting faster as the months go by, or slower.

Here is an article by Phil Maffetone that explains it better than I could: The MAF test.

mul21 wrote:It looks to me like you may have sacrificed some of your half marathon speed in favor of endurance based on your mileage.  I would think this would adversely affect races up to 10 miles and maybe the half, but possibly give you an advantage over previous races in the last 10K of the marathon by being able to hang onto goal MP a bit better.

There's really not enough info here to give you a good answer though.  What types of runs are you talking about the HR being higher on?  Have you done the same type of training as before?  More or less fast running?

 + 1

I think Jim hit the nail on the head.

You're a racer and you know your body so I wouldn't worry about the heart rate.  

I would guess that your half times will be down right now but you may be able to PR in the marathon.  Go Get Em.  It all comes down to potty stops now.