US Marathon Trials Prediction Thread

[Chris M]

The race is less than a month away. Let's hear your predicted 3 for the men and 3 for the women. This quote by Ryan Hall this week made me laugh as it is really well played trash talking:

Question: What type of time do you think it will take to win the Trials, and what type of time just to get on the team?


Ryan Hall: It's hard to say. It all depends on how the race plays out. But I will say I think the top three guys will all be under 2:10.

Hall and Meb are the ONLY 2 runners in the field who have EVER run sub 2:10.

My predictions:

Men

1. Hall (can't imagine any scenario other than injury where he's not top 3)

2. Ritz (too much talent and speed not to make it)

3. Mo Trafeh (maybe this is a bet against Meb as he's never even done a marathon)

Women

1. Flannigan (like Hall, seems to be an absolute lock to me)

2. Davila (although a recent 1:11 half made me wonder...)

3. Goucher (over Kastor? over Magadelena? others? Geez, this 3rd spot is tough one to pick on both races)

[Michele "1L" Keane]

I actually like your picks, Chris. Unfortunately, I think both Meb and Deena had their time in the spotlight. I'm betting on a wildcard though for the 3rd spot on both sides.

[Admin]

I heard that Rupp's in now... possibly pacing Ritz?

[Dave-O]

Hall and Meb are the ONLY 2 runners in the field who have EVER run sub 2:10.

While true, that's not exactly a fair considering Ritz ran 2:10:00 in Beijing.

I think Hall is the only lock. Ritz has been out of the game for so long that he's a major question mark. Same thing with Goucher. I'm not ready to make my predictions yet. If Rupp really is running, I think he has as good of a shot as Ritz and Meb.

[Alex Kubacki]

Men: (I don't think Rupp will end up doing it)

1. Hall

2. Ritz

3. ?

Women:

1. Davila - I'm going with her experience on this one to trump Flannigan's speed.

2. Flannigan

3. ?

I don't think Goucher makes it. She's coming back from the hip injury. I think she'll end up running Boston.

[Matt W]

Hall and Meb are the ONLY 2 runners in the field who have EVER run sub 2:10.

While true, that's not exactly a fair considering Ritz ran 2:10:00 in Beijing.

I think Hall is the only lock. Ritz has been out of the game for so long that he's a major question mark. Same thing with Goucher. I'm not ready to make my predictions yet. If Rupp really is running, I think he has as good of a shot as Ritz and Meb.

I thought the 2:10:00 was in London, but I could be wrong.

Agree with your other thoughts though.

[healdgator]

You guys are crazy. I'm a lock to make the team.

[Dave-O]

I thought the 2:10:00 was in London, but I could be wrong.

You are correct. What kind of fanboy am I?

[fostever]

Ryan Hall - of fame

Meb Kaflezighi

Nick Arciniaga

Desiree Devila

Magdalena Lewy Boulet

Tera Moody

[Joel H]

Men:

Hall

Ritz

Brett Gotcher (he has run 2:10:36 and has run well in Houston the past few years)



Women:

Flanagan

Devila

Goucher

[Diego]

I agree with Meb and Ryan and Desi, Flannigan and Magdalena.

I like Arcianaga as a possible threat, too.



But who among the women marathoners will also go for the 10k? Will Flannigan try that one as well? Or is it too close in timing to the marathon? What about Goucher?

[Ben Z]

Great thread Chris. As a huge fan of the sport of extended exercising I love talking about these kinds of things as 99.9% of the population, maybe 99.99%?, has no idea who Ryan Hall even is let alone Mo Trafeh. Here goes:

Men

1. Hall - He is five minutes faster than the next guy in the field. Yes, I know he ran 2:04 in Boston with a huge tailwind but his legs still had to carry him to that time. Even on a bad day he still makes the team I believe so he's gotta be in the top three. The only question mark with him though is whether he recovered well enough from Chicago to get in a decent block of training and not overdo it like he did after Boston in 2010 when he had to DNS before Chicago.
   
2. Meb - I know he's 36. I know he just ran NY and has even less time to recover compared to nearly everyone else. But he did just PR in NY and stayed with the leaders through 20+ miles (note to Ryan Hall, Phil Hersch was correct, you are no Meb) which shows us how tough he is. He knows this is probably his last chance to make an Olympics team so I would expect him to run himself in to the ground if necessary. As a result I think he squeaks on to the team.
   
3. Max King - I am saying this purely because I love the guy even though I heard he has been injured lately. He won the World Mountain Running Championships, Xterra World Championships for the third consecutive year, the US Half-Marathon Trail Championships and did well at shorter distances at the US and Club cross-country national championships. On the trails he is nearly unbeatable and I would love to see him make the team despite only having the 22nd (I believe) fastest marathon time in the field.
   

Realistically I think the second and third spots are pretty wide open. While I really like Ritz he is just too fragile it seems and I don't think he'll finish. Rupp is an absolute wildcard and while he could win the thing given his ridiculous speed I think he too will drop out after 20-22 miles once he feels marathon legs for the first time. Hartmann, Gotcher, Trafeh, etc.? All have showed potential to claim the third spot but are unproven in a competitive race where they are in the lead pack for the vast majority of the race - where I expect they will be until 20+.

Women

1. Shalane - Based on her recent race results and comments from Goucher about how fit she is I think she's even more of a lock than Hall.
   
2. Desi - She's probably the smartest racer of the elite women in the field and she knows the marathon. She's in.
   
3. Magda - She just set 5K and 10K PRs at 38 this summer and she knows the marathon well having run numerous marathons since the early 2000s. She also PRd in the marathon last year.
   

Apologies to Kara (a 75 minute half-marathon two weeks ago scares me), Deena, and the rest of the contenders.

[Ben Z]

3. Mo Trafeh (maybe this is a bet against Meb as he's never even done a marathon)

Correction, he's never completed one. He was a DNF in London this past spring.

[Chris M]

3. Mo Trafeh (maybe this is a bet against Meb as he's never even done a marathon)

Correction, he's never completed one. He was a DNF in London this past spring.

I didn't know that. Makes me even more worried to have him as one of my 3 picks but I'll stick with it. I need to read up on Magda because all of your comments have me thinking she is more of a contender than I realized.

Not to change subjects but Ben, you've got to be happy with the way Arsenal has looked. I and others had written them off but they have looked great recently and put a huge scare into Man City this weekend. A team on the way up whereas everyone thought they were going down down down. Breck Shea has been training with them as has Henry. Would love to Shea play in the EPL and Henry suiting up again for them would be cool to see even for a Chelsea fan like me.

[Michael Mitchell]

I am just sooo glad I will be there!!!!

[Michele "1L" Keane]

I didn't realize that Magdalena was having such a positive year as I had discounted her based on age. Of course, I should realize that Carlos Lopes and Rosa Mota won major titles at 40 - so it can be in the genes. As for Kara, while I really love the women, I don't think she'll make it as I just don't think she has it right now. I'd love to see her at Boston though.

[nkrichards]

Max King - I am saying this purely because I love the guy even though I heard he has been injured lately. He won the World Mountain Running Championships, Xterra World Championships for the third consecutive year, the US Half-Marathon Trail Championships and did well at shorter distances at the US and Club cross-country national championships. On the trails he is nearly unbeatable and I would love to see him make the team despite only having the 22nd (I believe) fastest marathon time in the field.

I'll definately be watching Max. He's a great guy. He lives in Bend...about an hour away and recently came out to our little community to put on a running clinic. It was fun!

Ryan Bak of Bend also qualified with his 2nd place finish at CIM. Bend also has a competitor in the women's race...Kami Semick. I've seen her at some of the local races but never actually met her. I will say that overall the elite runners in Bend are fantastic. They finish their races and then wait around to cheer on the late finishers.

[Ben Z]

Not to change subjects but Ben, you've got to be happy with the way Arsenal has looked. I and others had written them off but they have looked great recently and put a huge scare into Man City this weekend. A team on the way up whereas everyone thought they were going down down down. Breck Shea has been training with them as has Henry. Would love to Shea play in the EPL and Henry suiting up again for them would be cool to see even for a Chelsea fan like me.

Yeah I am! Another win today and we are looking good! I like our chances for champions league football again next year. We'll go as far as RVP can take us

[Ben Z]

Maybe Mike Morgan will mix it up?

1:20:37 for 26k predicts a 2:10 and change finish.

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/234517-Brooks-HQ/video/543872-Hansons-Brooks-Simulator-Workout-2012-Olympic-Marathon-Trials-Training

[Sara Jane]

Apologies to Kara (a 75 minute half-marathon two weeks ago scares me), Deena, and the rest of the contenders.

She actually ran a 72:59 when her goal going in was a 73 minute training run. Not suggesting that means she's a shoe-in to make the team or anything...just clarifying. She's the first to admit she's behind the ball in terms of fitness because of the hip.

Will be interesting to see what Deena does/doesn't do. I just love her. Will be fun to see what she pulls out.

[Dave-O]

She actually ran a 72:59 when her goal going in was a 73 minute training run. Not suggesting that means she's a shoe-in to make the team or anything...just clarifying. She's the first to admit she's behind the ball in terms of fitness because of the hip.

Will be interesting to see what Deena does/doesn't do. I just love her. Will be fun to see what she pulls out.

I'll be interested in Kara's tactics should Shalane or Desi push the pace early. I agree she's slightly behind her past fitness, so going with them may be a risk. I could see a Sell in 2008 type approach, where she determines the time she feels necessary to make the team, and sticks with that plan regardless of what those ahead of her do.

Of course, that's not really her racing style.

[ounce]

For what it's worth to the participants, the only parts of the course that is truly pancake flat are the downtown piece and the little cut out piece on Waugh Drive, as the course circles around Buffalo Bayou.

NBC is broadcasting the race on a taped-delayed basis on Saturday afternoon. Check your liocal listings. Your mileage may vary.

[Ben Z]

Apologies to Kara (a 75 minute half-marathon two weeks ago scares me), Deena, and the rest of the contenders.

She actually ran a 72:59 when her goal going in was a 73 minute training run. Not suggesting that means she's a shoe-in to make the team or anything...just clarifying. She's the first to admit she's behind the ball in terms of fitness because of the hip.

Will be interesting to see what Deena does/doesn't do. I just love her. Will be fun to see what she pulls out.

You are correct, my bad. But I found it funny her 'goal was 73 minutes' and she announced this after she ran 72:59. Coincidence?

She just seems too far behind where she was at 2-3 years ago when she was running 68 minute halfs before marathons. I sure hope she proves me wrong though because I really like her. Same with Deena. I actually kinda wish the top three would end up being Desi (love, love her work ethic), Deena and Kara. Shalane can still make the 10k team with ease.

[pattyspangs]

Hall, Ritz, Meb. That much seems relatively easy though I get there are a few other contenders for the third spot.

I think the women's race is going to be awesome and there are a lot of wild cards since all of the women are 5k-type runners. Flanagan and Desi seem to be on top of their game. I think Goucher can make the team, but she might not. Her fitness is down and I don't think she is at Flanagan's level right now. For her it will depend on what the top 3-6 runners do.

I loved that Deena came out and said she is going to try and WIN the race in her Runner's World interview. I am not counting her out and I think she might have a better shot at making the team than Goucher.

[Sara Jane]

You are correct, my bad. But I found it funny her 'goal was 73 minutes' and she announced this after she ran 72:59. Coincidence?

....Only because you seem to be suggesting that she was being dishonest or twisting things (or, more to the point, that she was making that up afterwards based on her result) - I will tell you that 73 was indeed the plan. At least per the text message I received the day before. So no, no coincidence. She was just THAT accurate.

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